...
The figures above show the 4-day precipitation accumulation (30 Jan 06UTC -3 Feb 06UTC) from HRES. The first figure shows the observed values from the same period. The maximum over the southern Alps was well captured for the forecast from 30 Jan 00UTC, but the heavy precipitation for the Rome region was clearly missed. The heavy rainfall for the southern tip of Italy was captured by the forecast but not in the exact location. For earlier forecasts, the maximum precipitation was lower for the Alps and still missed for Rome.
3.3 ENS
EFI from 29 Jan 00UTC for 31 Jan to 5 Feb (day 1-5).
...