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The plots below show z500 ensemble mean forecast (black), verifying analysis (red) and error (shading) for the forecast from 30 August 00z for different time-steps (shortest forecast first), which resulted in a large-scale forecast bust over Europe. Large errors appear at step 24 (first plot) east of Canada, related to a rapid development of a surface cyclone. At the same time TC Franklin and TC Idalia were present in the western Atlantic. The error propagated to north-east and probably caused the error in the omega blocking that had storm Daniel forming on its south-eastern side day 6.
The plots below show global analyses for 30 August to 5 September (all 00UTC).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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