Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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The plots below show the same as above but with SOT included. Also in SOT, there is not much of a signal from before 31 August.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation (4 September 00UTC - 7 September 00UTC) for land points inside a 0.5x0.5 box centred on Volos in Greece. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts. Also here the step change from 30 to 31 August is evident in the ensemble.
The plots below show z500 ensemble mean forecast (black), verifying analysis (red) and error (shading) for the forecast from 30 August 00z for different time-steps (shortest forecast first), which resulted in a large-scale forecast bust over Europe. Large errors appear at step 24 (first plot) east of Canada, related to a rapid development of a surface cyclone. At the same time TC Franklin and TC Idalia were present in the western Atlantic. The error propagated to north-east and probably caused the error in the omega blocking that had storm Daniel forming on its south-eastern side day 6.
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