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3.2 HRES
The plots below show 2472-hour precipitation (3 August 06UTC - 4 August 06UTC4 September 00UTC - 7 September 00UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times.Note that sea points have been masked out. The square marks a 0.5x0.5 degree box around Volos in Greece, which got more than 600 mm.
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The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation (4 Sepember September 00UTC - 7 September 00UTC) from different initial dates. The signal for extreme precipitation appeared 4 days before the event (31 August).
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The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation (4 September 00UTC - 7 September 00UTC) for land points inside a 0.5x0.5 box centred on Volos in Greece. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, DestinE4.4 - purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts. Also here the step change from 30 to 31 August is evident in the ensemble.
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