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EFI for total precipitation, forecast for T+240-360h. Yellow/red colours mean wetter than normal conditions.
Cyclonic features according to 12-hour maximum precipitation (-6/+6h) in different forecast valid for 19/06/2014 12UTC and 20/06/2014 00UTC.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
Exceptionally wet weather in the Balkans has been predicted well in the medium range by the ENS. Positive precipitation anomalies appeared even in the far medium range for days 8 to 14. For longer ranges in the monthly forecast there is no signal.
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Four control forecast of total precipitation from TIGGE: ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP and LAM Aladin Austria. Having different resolution and different model characteristics they all forecast significant rainfall in the eastern part of Bulgaria.
Forecasts of 24-h accumulated rainfall valid for 19 June 06UTC to 20 June 06UTC from ECMWF HRES (~16 km) and COSMO LEPS control (~10 km). Black numbers denote observed rainfall accumulations. COSMO LEPS is a non-hydrostatic limited-area ensemble which uses initial and boundary conditions from ECMWF ENS. It comprises 16 perturbed members and a control forecast with a horizontal resolution of about 10 km. To obtain initial and boundary conditions an extended ensemble of 2 consecutive ECMWF ENS runs is used (51+51 members) and a cluster analysis is applied to these 102 members. For each of the 16 clusters a representative member is selected to provide initial and boundary conditions. The ensemble is run up to T+132h.
Forecasts of 24-h accumulated rainfall valid for 19 June 06UTC to 20 June 06UTC from ECMWF HRES and UKMO global model.
Probability of rain above 50 mm/24h from ECMWF ENS (~32 km) and COSMO LEPS (~10 km) in the short range. Numbers in the brackets show the horizontal resolution of each ensemble.
Probability of rain above 20 and 50 mm/24h from ECMWF ENS and COSMO LEPS in the medium-range.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- The EFI/SOT gave a signal of abnormal rainfall well in advance - 4 to 5 days before the event on 19 June.
- Convective nature of the rainfall makes forecasts of its location and intensity quite difficult. Forecasts vary a lot from one run to another considerably altering the location of the most intense rainfall. This increases the uncertainty of the forecast and makes the localisation of the heavy rain extremely difficult even in the short range. The cyclogenesis over the Black Sea is well captured by IFS.