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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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Picture
1. Impact
A severe weather event that affected the Maldives on Sunday 31st December. A low pressure area formed west of the Maldives late 30th Dec and resulted in very heavy rainfall over the country, especially the central region and capital island Male'. Hulhule station (VRMM), Central Maldives, reported a total of 179.7mm within 24 hours for 31st December 2023. This broke the previous record of 175.9mm on 23 Dec 1977. The main city island Male' was completely flooded and was dewatered using pumps. National Disaster Management Authority reported 140 households were assisted during the flood response and 42 people from 8 households are currently in temporary shelters.
2. Description of the event
Satellite picture below showing the convective setup.
The timeseries below shows the observed rainfall over the main city (Male).
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation (31 ecember 00UTC - 1 January 00UTC) a 0.5x0.5 box centred on Male. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts. While the wetter-than normal signal is visible also here, the extreme was only captured in the last forecast.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below below shows the weekly mean precipitation anomaly for 25 December - 31 December in the forecast from 25 December.
The plot below shows MJO forecasts from 31 December and 26 December. A strong MJO event was present in the western Indian Ocean around the day of the extreme.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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