Versions Compared

Key

  • This line was added.
  • This line was removed.
  • Formatting was changed.

...

3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

The plot below show first guess (left) and analysis (right) of MSLP and departures of surface pressure observations for the LWDA cycle on 13 December 00UTC.

Image Added

 

3.2 HRES

The plots below show 5-day precipitation (13 December 00UTC - 18 December 00UTC) in concatenated short forecasts (first plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times. Note that sea points have been masked out. The box marks 15.5S - 17.5S, 145E- 146E.

0001_LWDA_2023121300_ps_60000_110000_JASPER.ps

The plots below show 1-day precipitation (13 December 00UTC - 14 December 00UTC) in concatenated short forecasts (first plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times. Note that sea points have been masked out. The box marks 15.5S - 17.5S, 145E- 146E. The last forecast (from 13 Dec 00UTC) had the precipitation shifted to the south.

Image AddedImage AddedImage AddedImage AddedImage AddedImage Added


The plots below show 1-day precipitation (17 December 00UTC - 18 December 00UTC) in concatenated short forecasts (first plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times. Note that sea points have been masked out. The box marks 15.5S - 17.5S, 145E- 146E. The extreme rainfall on 17 December seems to only been captured 48 hours in advance.

...

The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 5-day precipitation (13 December 00UTC - 18 December 00UTC)  from different initial dates.

The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation (13 December 00UTC - 14 December 00UTC)  from different initial dates.

Image AddedImage AddedImage AddedImage AddedImage AddedImage AddedImage Added


The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation (17 December 00UTC - 18 December 00UTC)  from different initial dates.

...

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

...

  •  Early signal for genesis of TC Jasper
  • Problematic forecast jsut before landfall (13 December)
  • Erroneous westward propagation after landfall also in short forecasts

6. Additional material