Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
In the middle of December the post-landfall cyclone related to TC Jasper caused severe rainfall over Queensland, Australia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Jasper
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Cairns_floods
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 11 December 00UTC to 18 December 00UTC, every 12th hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
The plot below show first guess (left) and analysis (right) of MSLP and departures of surface pressure observations for the LWDA cycle on 13 December 00UTC. This data assimilation cycle seems to have severe problems with the TC.
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 5-day precipitation (13 December 00UTC - 18 December 00UTC) in concatenated short forecasts (first plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times. Note that sea points have been masked out. The box marks 15.5S - 17.5S, 145E- 146E.
0001_LWDA_2023121300_ps_60000_110000_JASPER.ps
The plots below show 1-day precipitation (13 December 00UTC - 14 December 00UTC) in concatenated short forecasts (first plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times. Note that sea points have been masked out. The box marks 15.5S - 17.5S, 145E- 146E. The last forecast (from 13 Dec 00UTC) had the precipitation shifted to the south.
The plots below show 1-day precipitation (17 December 00UTC - 18 December 00UTC) in concatenated short forecasts (first plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times. Note that sea points have been masked out. The box marks 15.5S - 17.5S, 145E- 146E. The extreme rainfall on 17 December seems to only been captured 48 hours in advance.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 5-day precipitation (13 December 00UTC - 18 December 00UTC) from different initial dates.
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation (13 December 00UTC - 14 December 00UTC) from different initial dates.
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation (17 December 00UTC - 18 December 00UTC) from different initial dates.
The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for TC Jasper for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 15 December 00UTC (first plot) to 5 December 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 15 December 00UTC (hourglass for BestTrack). HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black).
Central pressure (top) and maximum wind speed (bottom) for HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Early signal for genesis of TC Jasper
- Problematic forecast jsut before landfall (13 December)
- Erroneous westward propagation after landfall also in short forecasts