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The plots below show 5-day precipitation (13 December 00UTC - 18 December 00UTC) in concatenated short forecasts (first plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times. Note that sea points have been masked out. The box marks 15.5S - 17.5S, 145E- 146E.
0001_LWDA_2023121300_ps_60000_110000_JASPER.ps
The plots below show 1-day precipitation (13 December 00UTC - 14 December 00UTC) in concatenated short forecasts (first plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times. Note that sea points have been masked out. The box marks 15.5S - 17.5S, 145E- 146E. The last forecast (from 13 Dec 00UTC) had the precipitation shifted to the south.
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The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 5-day precipitation (13 December 00UTC - 18 December 00UTC) from different initial dates.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 5-day precipitation (13 December 00UTC - 18 December 00UTC) in land-points inside the box outlined in the plots above. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts. (Climate to be added)
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation (13 December 00UTC - 14 December 00UTC) from different initial dates.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 1-day precipitation (13 December 00UTC) in land-points inside the box outlined in the plots above. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts. (Climate to be added)
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation (17 December 00UTC - 18 December 00UTC) from different initial dates.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 1-day precipitation (17 December 00UTC) in land-points inside the box outlined in the plots above. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts. (Climate to be added)
The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for TC Jasper for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 15 December 00UTC (first plot) to 5 December 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 15 December 00UTC (hourglass for BestTrack). HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black).
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