Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ahmed, Rebecca
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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The plots below show 24-hour precipitation (31 December 00UTC - 1 January 00UTC) in concatenated short forecasts (first plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times. The box marks 0.5x0.5 degree centred on Male'. It While all forecast plotted here had some rainfall, it was first the shortest forecast (from 31 December 00UTC) that captured the severe rainfall.
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- Early signal for wet weather, probably related to the MJO
- The extreme around Male appeared only in the last forecast before the event.