...
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation (31 ecember 00UTC - 1 January 00UTC) a 0.5x0.5 box centred on Male. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts. While the wetter-than normal signal is visible also here, the extreme was only captured in the last forecast.
ecPoint
| DT & lead time: | 0Z 28th (T+72-84) | 12Z 28th (T+60-72) | 0Z 29th (T+48-60) | 12Z 29th (T+36-48) | 0Z 30th (T+24-36) | 12Z 30th (T+12-24) | 00Z 31st (T+0-12) |
CDFs for 12h rainfall for Male |
: Valid 00-12UTC 31st when about |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Probabilities of point rainfall (as measured by a gauge) exceeding 100mm in 12h, from ecPoint: |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below below shows the weekly mean precipitation anomaly for 25 December - 31 December. All lead-times here showed a wet anomaly around 10-15N, and the forecast from 16 Decmber had already a very strong anomaly.
...