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The plots above shows the accumulated precipitation in HRES accumulated for 3-6 September (72 hours). The area extent of the precipitation is reasonable. (I suspect that we could have a few gridpoint storms here.)
3.3 ENS
Gallery includeLabel prob_72_100 sort comment title Prob. >100 m mm in 72 hours
The plots above shows the probability for more than 100 mm during the 72-hour period (3-6 September) from forecasts with different initial times.
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The plots above shows the EFI and SOT for 3-day accumulation of precipitation.
In both the probability maps and the EFI a strong signal is present for the rainfall from 31 August and onwards.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The figure above shows the ensemble mean anomalies for the week 1-7 September from different monthly forecasts, including the analysis (top panel). The first forecast is from 28 August. As seen in the EFI plot the signal was not strong for this forecast but a wet anomaly is present for southern Pakistan. A wet anomaly was also present in the forecast from a week earlier (21 August), but still a bit too far south.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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The plots above shows the discharge forecast for River Chenab at a point close to Multan. The forecast from 1 September already has a signal for flooding, as expected from the rainfall forecasts above.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- The heavy rainfall seems to have been well predicted from 31 August (lead time day 3-6).