Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Tim , Linus, Lisa Bengtsson (SMHI)
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/09/01/sc/
Picture
1. Impact
Significant flooding, due to a relatively short-lived burst of convective activity, affected both Copenhagen and Malmo in the morning of 31 August. Many roads were closed and buildings were flooded.
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The plots below shows the 12-hour accumulated rainfall between 00UTC and 12UTC on the 31 August. The fist plot is the observed rainfall and the second accumulated rainfall from radar (provided by SMHI).
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The animation above shows successive HRES mslp and 12h ppn forecasts for Sat night. Mostly near Copenhagen these runs show about 10mm, though within the pink zone there will be more locally. so HRES forecasts are a bit underdone.
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