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Below we compare different ensembles retrieved from the TIGGE archive.
Probability for .20 mm/12 hours for the 31 August 00-12UTC
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ECMWF
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DMI
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COMSO-LEPS
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COSMO-DE-EPS
Stamp maps
For all ensemble, a maximum of 20 members are plotted. These plots should be compared to the 12-hour accumulation shown above.
31 August 00z
ECMWF (32 km)
NCEP (55 km)
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HIRLAM-DMI (11 km?)
COSMO-LEPS (10 km?)
COSMO-DE-EPS (2.8 km)
30 August 12z
ECMWF
NCEP
HIRLAM-DMI
COSMO-LEPS
COSMO-DE-EPS
From both these initial times, it is clear that the both global ensembles (ECMWF and NCEP) missed the extreme event. For the next level of resolution (~10 km LAM), the intensity is higher. For the COSMO-DE with 2.8 km the intensity is in the extreme range (>60 mm), but the uncertainty is still large.
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