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The plots above shows EFI for rainfall valid for 31 August. The first plot is from 28 31 August 00UTC and the following from 29, 30 and 31 August. 3 days before (top left) there was by 12 hours apart backwards in time. Already the forecast from 27 August 00UTC a hint of heavy rain, whilst . The signal got stronger for later forecasts and the 2 and 1 day before forecasts had a notable EFI and SOT (>1) signal. The 'day 0' forecast (first panel) backtracked a little, though is of no relevance for forecasting given issue time.
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Below we compare different ensembles retrieved from the TIGGE archive.
Probability maps
Probability for .20 mm/12 hours for the 31 August 00-12UTC
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COMSOCOSMO-LEPS
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