2014
Gray, S. L., Dunning, C., Methven, J., Masato, G. and Chagnon, J. (2014).
Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure. Geophysical
Res. Lett., 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL059282.
2013
Frame, T., Methven, J., Gray, S.L. and Ambaum, M.H.P. (2013): Flow dependent predictability of the North Atlantic jet. Geophysical. Res. Lett., 40, 2411-2416, doi:10.1002/grl.50454.
Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Russell L. Elsberry, 2013: Detection of Tropical Cyclone Track Changes from the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Geophysics Research Letter, doi: 10.1002/grl.50172
2012
Yamaguchi, M., T. Nakazawa, and S. Hoshino (2012), On the relative benefits of a multi-centre grand ensemble for tropical cyclone track prediction in the western North Pacific. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.1937.
Belanger, James I., Peter J. Webster, Judith A. Curry, Mark T. Jelinek, 2012, Extended Prediction of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones, Weather and Forecasting, e-View. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00083.1
Davis, Christopher A., Wen-Chau Lee, 2012: Mesoscale Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Episodes from SoWMEX/TiMREX, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 69 (2), 521-537. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0120.1
Duan, Yihong, Jiandong Gong, Jun Du, Martin Charron, Jing Chen, Guo Deng, Geoff DiMego, Masahiro Hara, Masaru Kunii, Xiaoli Li, Yinglin Li, Kazuo Saito, Hiromu Seko, Yong Wang, Christoph Wittmann, 2012, An Overview of the Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93 (3), 381-403. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00115.1
Galarneau, Thomas J., Thomas M. Hamill, Randall M. Dole, Judith Perlwitz, 2012, A Multi-Scale Analysis of the Extreme Weather Events over Western Russia and Northern Pakistan During July 2010, Monthly Weather Review, 140, 1639–1664. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00191.1
Gombos, Daniel, Ross N. Hoffman, James A. Hansen, 2012, Ensemble statistics for diagnosing dynamics: Tropical cyclone track forecast sensitivities revealed by ensemble regression, Monthly Weather Review, e-View. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00002.1
Hagedorn, R., Buizza, R., Hamill, T. M., Leutbecher, M. and Palmer, T. N., 2012, Comparing TIGGE multimodel forecasts with reforecast-calibrated ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. doi: 10.1002/qj.1895 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.1895/abstract
Hamill, Thomas M., 2012, Verification of TIGGE Multi-model and ECMWF Reforecast-Calibrated Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts over the Contiguous US Monthly Weather Review, e-View, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00220.1
Schumacher, Russ S., Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., 2012, Moisture transport into midlatitudes ahead of recurving tropical cyclones and its relevance in two predecessor rain events, Monthly Weather Review, e-View. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00307.1
2011
Frame, T. H. A., Ambaum, M. H. P., Gray, S. L. and Methven, J., 2011, Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1288-1297. doi: 10.1002/qj.829 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.829/abstract
Froude, L. S. R., 2011: TIGGE: Comparison of the Prediction of Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones by Different Ensemble Prediction Systems. Weather and Forecasting, 26,388-398. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010WAF2222457.1
Grams, C. M., Wernli, H., Bottcher, M., Campa, J., Corsmeier, U., Jones, S. C., Keller, J. H., Lenz, C.-J. and Wiegand, L., 2011, The key role of diabatic processes in modifying the upper-tropospheric wave guide: a North Atlantic case-study, Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 2174-2193. doi: 10.1002/qj.891 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.891/abstract
Hamill, T.M., J.S. Whitaker, M. Fiorino and S.G. Benjamin, 2011, Global Ensemble Predictions of 2009's Tropical Cyclones Initialized with an Ensemble Kalman Filter, Monthly Weather Review, 139 (2), 668-688. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3456.1
Keller, J. H., S. C. Jones, J. L. Evans, and P. A. Harr, 2011: Characteristics of the TIGGE multimodel ensemble prediction system in representing forecast variability associated with extratropical transition, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12802, doi:10.1029/2011GL047275
Kim, Sangil, R. M. Samelson, Chris Snyder, 2011,Toward an Uncertainty Budget for a Coastal Ocean ModelMonthly Weather Review, 139 (3), 866-884. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3352.1
Kipling, Zak, Cristina Primo, Andrew Charlton-Perez, 2011: Spatiotemporal Behavior of the TIGGE Medium-Range Ensemble Forecasts*. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2561-2571. doi: 10.1175/2010MWR3556.1. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010MWR3556.1
Majumdar, S. J., Chen, S.-G. and Wu, C.-C., 2011, Characteristics of Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter adaptive sampling guidance for tropical cyclones. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 503-520. doi: 10.1002/qj.746 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.746/abstract
Matsueda, M., 2011: Predictability of Euro-Russian blocking in summer of 2010, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06801, doi:10.1029/2010GL046557.
Matsueda, M., H. Endo, 2011: Verification of medium-range MJO forecasts with TIGGE. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11801, doi:10.1029/2011GL047480. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011GL047480.shtml
Matsueda, M., M. Kyouda, Z. Toth, H. L. Tanaka, and T. Tsuyuki, 2011: Predictability of an Atmospheric Blocking Event that Occurred on 15 December 2005, Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2455-2470.
Schumacher, Russ S., 2011, Ensemble-Based Analysis of Factors Leading to the Development of a Multiday Warm-Season Heavy Rain Event, Monthly Weather Review, 139 (9), 3016-3035 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05022.1
Waliser, Duane E., Mitch Moncrieff, David Burrridge, Andreas H. Fink, Dave Gochis, B. N. Goswami, Bin Guan, Patrick Harr, Julian Heming, Huang-Hsuing Hsu, Christian Jakob, Matt Janiga, Richard Johnson, Sarah Jones, Peter Knippertz, Jose Marengo, Hanh Nguyen, Mick Pope, Yolande Serra, Chris Thorncroft, Matthew Wheeler, Robert Wood, Sandra Yuter, 2011, The “Year” of Tropical Convection (May 2008 to April 2010): Climate Variability and Weather Highlights,Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,e-View.doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3095.1
Wiegand, Lars, Arwen Twitchett, Cornelia Schwierz, Peter Knippertz, 2011, Heavy Precipitation at the Alpine South Side and Saharan Dust over Central Europe: A Predictability Study Using TIGGE, Weather and Forecasting, 26, 957–974.doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-10-05060.1
Yamaguchi, Munehiko, David S. Nolan, Mohamed Iskandarani, Sharanya J. Majumdar, Melinda S. Peng, Carolyn A. Reynolds, 2011, Singular Vectors for Tropical Cyclone–Like Vortices in a Nondivergent Barotropic Framework, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68 (10), 2273-2291. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JAS3727.1
2010
Bougeault, P., Z. Toth, C. Bishop, B. Brown, D. Burridge, D. Chen, E. Ebert, M. Fuentes, T. Hamill, K. Mylne, J. Nicolau, T. Paccagnella, Y.-Y. Park, D. Parsons, B. Raoult, D. Schuster, P. Silva Dias, R. Swinbank, Y. Takeuchi, W. Tennant, L. Wilson and S. Worley, 2010: The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 91, 1059–1072. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010BAMS2853.1
Chen, Shin-Gan, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. J. Majumdar and C. C. Wu, 2010: Properties of the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter adaptive sampling strategy for tropical cyclones. 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_167822.htm
Froude, L.S.R., 2010: TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 819-836. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010WAF2222326.1
Froude, L. S. R. and R. J. Gurney, 2010: Storm prediction research and its application to the oil/gas industry. In: Troccoli A (ed) Management of Weather and Climate Risk in the Energy Industry, NATO Science Series, Springer, 241-252. http://www.nerc-essc.ac.uk/~lsrf/Downloads/NATO.pdf
Hagedorn, R., R. Buizza, T.M. Hamill, M. Leutbecher, and T.N. Palmer, 2010: Comparing TIGGE multi-model and ECMWF calibrated ensembles. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 12, EGU2010-10456. http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2010/EGU2010-10456.pdf
Hamill, T., J. S. Whitaker and S. Benjamin, 2010: Performance of the NOAA FIM global ensemble prediction system for hurricanes during the 2009 season. 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences. http://ams.confex.com/ams/90annual/techprogram/paper_157592.htm
He, Y., F. Wetterhall, H. Bao, H. Cloke, Z. Li, F. Pappenberger, Y. Hu, D. manful, and Y. Huang, 2010: Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July–September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study. Atmospheric Science Letters, 11, 132–138.
Huang, Y., Z. Li, Y. He, F. Wetterhall, D. Manful, H. Cloke, and F. Pappenberger, 2010: Uncertainty assessment of early flood warning driven by the TIGGE ensemble weather predictions. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 12, EGU2010-15497. http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2010/EGU2010-15497.pdf
Keller, J., 2010: Investigation of predictability during the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones using the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/168784.pdf
Jan D. Keller, Andreas Hense, Luis Kornblueh, Andreas Rhodin, 2010, On the Orthogonalization of Bred Vectors, Weather and Forecasting, 25 (4), 1219-1234, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010WAF2222334.1
McCaslin, P., T. Nakazawa, R. Swinbank and Z. Toth, 2010: Improving cyclone warning Case study: Philippines. WMO Bulletin, 59(2), 79-81.
Majumdar, Sharanya J. and Peter M. Finocchio, 2010: On the ability of global Ensemble Prediction Systems to predict tropical cyclone track probabilities. Weather and Forecasting, 25, 2, 659-680. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009WAF2222327.1
Nakazawa, Tetsuo and M. Matsueda, 2010: Genesis potential estimation of high-impact weather by TIGGE ensemble data. 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_168409.htm
Nakazawa, T., R. Swinbank, Z. Toth and E. Ebert, 2010: THORPEX/TIGGE applications to TC motion and forecasting. 7th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VII), La Réunion, France, 15-20 November 2010. http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/iwtc/documentation/SF2a.pdf
Ramos, M.; Zalachori, I.; Mathevet, T.; Loumagne, C., 2010: Using the TIGGE database for ensemble hydrological forecasting: a study on 74 catchments in France. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #H23A-1166. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.H23A1166R
Schumacher, Russ S., 2010: Predecessor Rain Events ahead of recurving tropical cyclones: Using numerical simulations and ensemble forecasts to quantify the rainfall enhancement. 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_169261.htm
Schumacher, R.S., and C.A. Davis, 2010: Ensemble-based uncertainty analysis of diverse heavy rainfall events. Weather and Forecasting, 25(4), 1103-1122. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222378.1
Yamaguchi, M. and S. J. Majumdar, 2010: Using TIGGE data to diagnose initial perturbations and their growth for tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 9, 3634-3655. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3176.1
Yamaguchi, Munehiko, 2010: Using TIGGE data to diagnose initial perturbations and their growth for tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts. 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/divs/mpo/About_MPO/Seminars/2009/Yamaguchi-Abstract.pdf
Zhao, L., H. Wu, D. Qi, F. Tian, J. Di, Q. Duan, and Z. Wang, 2010: Evaluation of probabilistic precipitation forecast using TIGGE data over Huaihe Basin. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 12, EGU2010-15306-1. http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2010/EGU2010-15306-1.pdf
2009
Bao, H.; Li, Z.; Yu, Z., 2009: Development of coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic flood forecasting system driven by ensemble weather predictions. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2009, abstract #H51G-0833. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.H51G0833B
Candille, Guillem, 2009: The multiensemble approach: The NAEFS example. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1655–1665. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008MWR2682.1
He, Y., F. Wetterhall, H. L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, M. Wilson, J. Freer and G. McGregor, 2009: Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions. Meteorol. Appl.. DOI: 10.1002/met. http://www.nmpi.net/wiki/images/3/34/TIGGE_HE_et_al2009.pdf
He, Y.; Manful, D. Y.; Cloke, H. L.; Wetterhall, F.; Li, Z.; Bao, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Wesner, S.; Schubert, L.; Yang, L.; Hu, Y., 2009: Development of web-based services for a novel ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2009, abstract #NH43A-1297. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFMNH43A1297H
Jacobs, C.A. and S.J. Worley, 2009: Data Curation in Climate and Weather: Transforming Our Ability to Improve Predictions through Global Knowledge Sharing. The International Journal of Digital Curation. v.4, 68-79. http://www.ijdc.net/index.php/ijdc/article/viewFile/119/122
Johnson, C. and R. Swinbank, 2009: Medium-range multi-model ensemble combination and calibration, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 135, 777-794. http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/122246419/abstract
Earlier version published as Forecasting Research Technical Report, Meteorology R&D Technical Report no. 517, Met Office. pdf
Keller, Julia H. 2010: Investigation of predictability during the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones using the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_168784.htm
Krishnamurti, T.N., A. D. Sagadevan, A. Chakraborty, A. K. Mishra and A. Simon, 2009: Improving multimodel weather forecast of monsoon rain over China using FSU superensemble . Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. http://www.springerlink.com/content/h85463j782368381/
Matsueda, M., M. Kyouda, Z. Toth, T. Miyoshi, H. L. Tanaka, and T. Tsuyuki: On the predictability of a blocking occurred on 15th December 2005. Third THORPEX International Science Symposium. 14-18 September 2009, Monterey, USA. http://air.geo.tsukuba.ac.jp/~tanaka/papers/paper225.pdf
Matsueda, M., 2009: Blocking Predictability in Operational Medium-Range Ensemble Forecasts, SOLA, 5, 113-116. https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/5/0/5_0_113/_pdf
Matsueda, M., 2009: Comparison of medium-range ensemble forecast skill using the TIGGE database. Fourth Japan-China-Korea Joint Conference on Meteorology. 8-9 November 2009, Tsukuba, Japan. http://wwwsoc.nii.ac.jp/msj/jckjc09/JCKJC09-Abstract_Collection.pdf
Matsueda, M. and H.L. Tanaka, 2008: Can MCGE Outperform the ECMWF Ensemble? SOLA, 4, 77-80. https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/4/0/4_0_77/_pdf
2008
Buizza, R., Y.-Y. Park, M. Leutbecher, and, F. Pappenberger, 2008: Predictability studies using TIGGE data. ECMWF Newsletter No. 116, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2-9AX, UK. Available from http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/chronological_list.html
Pappenberger, F., J. Bartholmes, J. Thielen, H. L. Cloke, R. Buizza, and A. de Roo, 2008: New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L10404, doi:10.1029/2008GL033837. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008GL033837.shtml
Also published as ECMWF Technical Memorandum No.557 pdf
Park, Y.-Y., R. Buizza, and M. Leutbecher, 2008: TIGGE: preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 2029-2050 http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/121516300/abstract
Also published as ECMWF Technical Memorandum No. 548 pdf
Rutledge, G. K.; Schuster, D.; Worley, S.; Stepaniak, D.; Toth, Z.; Zhu, Y.; Bougeault, P.; Anthony, S. 2008: Archive Access to the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Suite of Model Output. American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2008, abstract #IN41A-04. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUSMIN41A..04R
Thielen, J.; Pappenberger, F.; Bartholmes, J.; Kalas, M.; Bogner, K.; de Roo, A., 2008: Flood Forecasting Based on Multiple EPS -- is it Worth the Effort? American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #H53H-03. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.H53H..03T
Titley, H., N. Savage, R. Swinbank and S. Thompson, 2008: Comparison between Met Office and ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecast systems, Meteorology R&D Technical Report no. 512, Met Office. pdf
Worley, S. Schuster, D., Raoult, B, Chen, D. and Gong, J., 2008: Improving High-impact weather forecasts EOS, 89, 36, 330-331. pdf
Zhu, Y.; Toth, Z.; Rutledge, G. K., 2008: TIGGE and NAEFS: Research and operational developments in multi-center ensemble forecasting. American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2008, abstract #IN41A-03. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUSMIN41A..03Z
2007
Matsueda, M., M. Kyouda, H.L. Tanaka and T. Tsuyuki, 2007: Daily Forecast Skill of Multi-Center Grand Ensemble. SOLA,3, 29-32. https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/3/0/3_0_29/_pdf
2006
Matsueda, M., M. Kyouda, H.L. Tanaka and T. Tsuyuki, 2006: Multi-Center Grand Ensemble using Three Operational Ensemble Forecasts.SOLA, 2, 33-36 https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/2/0/2_0_33/_pdf
2005
Richardson, D., R., Buizza and R. Hagedorn, 2005: Final report of the 1st Workshop on the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). WMO TD No. 1273, WWRP-THORPEX No. 5 pdf
The TIGGE data set is a major resource for research and development focused on the THORPEX goal of improving weather forecasting – particularly with a focus on improving forecasts of high-impact weather on the 1- to 14-day timescale.
- Research areas
- References - scientific papers, conference papers and other reports
- Details of other TIGGE and THORPEX websites
- Plans for development of a Global Interactive Forecast System
- Leaflet about the TIGGE project
TIGGE research areas
The scope of the GIFS-TIGGE WG covers applied research on ensemble forecasting, including:
- a posteriori calibration in all forms (bias correction, downscaling, etc.);
- combination of ensembles produced by multiple models;
- use of information in control forecasts;
- research to support probabilistic forecast products.
The TIGGE data is also invaluable for a much wider range of research and development, including the fields covered by the two other THORPEX working groups - Data Assimilation and Observing System (DAOS) and Predictability and Dynamical Processes (PDP) - and other WWRP working groups, including the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), Socio-economic Research and Applications (SERA) and the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR).
A leaflet about the TIGGE project has been produced by the THORPEX International Project Office and is available here.
Recent Research Work
We have compiled a list of scientific papers, conference papers and other reports of research using TIGGE data.
We encourage all researchers using TIGGE data to inform us, so that we can publicise your work via this page.