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2. Description of the event
The evaluation of the cold temperatures rainfall will focus on 24-hour rainfall on 16 April 00UTC - 17 Aprl 00UTC in a 0.25x0.25 box centred on Dubai (centre point 25.2N, 55.3E).
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 14 April 00UTC to 17 April 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 13 April to 17 April.
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The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation (16 April) from different initial dates.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation for Dubai on 16 April.
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS control–red
DestinE4.4km - purple dot
ENS - blue box-and-whisker
AIFS - pcyan dot
Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker
Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.
Signs of a rainfall extreme was seen from 6 April - 10 days before the event in the ensemble (median passed the model climate maximum).
ecPoint
16th April
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