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The plot below shows the analysis of 5-day temperature for 13-17 July.
Heat stress
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<iframe title="Feels-like temperature over southeastern Europe" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-RA7GG" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/RA7GG/4/?dark=true" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 650px !important; border: none;" height="705" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
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On 18 July 2024, the average feels-like temperature (UTCI) across southeastern Europe (land only) reached 38.02°C. 38°C is the threshold for 'very strong heat stress'. The maximum value in ERA5-HEAT, averaged over southeastern Europe, is 39.37°C, on 24 July 2007.
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<iframe title="How much of southeastern Europe has been affected by heat stress'? " aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-Xgdkr" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Xgdkr/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 650px !important; border: none;" height="641" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
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<iframe title="How much of southeastern Europe has been affected by 'very strong' or 'extreme' heat stress'? " aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-hcvSB" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hcvSB/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 650px !important; border: none;" height="617" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
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On 17 July 2024, virtually all (98%) of southeastern Europe was affected by at least 'strong heat stress', i.e. a feels-like temperature exceeding 32°C. On 18 July, 52% of southeastern Europe was affected by at least 'very strong' heat stress (feels-like temperature exceeding 38°C).
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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