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3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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The plot below shows the observation statistics for surface pressure from METAR ZJHK.
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 120-hour precipitation in observations (first plot) and concatenated short forecasts (second plot).
The plots below show 120-hour precipitation in ENS control forecasts with different lead times.
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Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts.
The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for TC Yagi for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 6 September 00UTC (first plot) to 1 September 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 6 September 00UTC (hourglass for BestTrack). HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black). AIFS is included in green.
The plots below show the same as above but of 49r1 e-suite.
The plots below show the tropical cyclone intensity (central pressure - top, maximum wind -bottom) for TC Yagi for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 6 September 00UTC (first plot) to 1 September 00UTC (last plot). HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black). AIFS is included in green.
The plots below show the same as above but of 49r1 e-suite.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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