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2. Description of the event
The plot below shows NEXRAD 24 hourly precipitation product which is valid for 00-00 yesterday and the NWS snow total map from snow fall reports (produced from a lot of observations in the order of a hundred). The nexrad is in mm and the snow is in inch. The maximum precip was 20-35 mm in the east of the area, around 7-10 mm in NYC. The snow however was up to over 30 inches (around 36 inches as the highest observation) and about 5-10 in NYC. Most of the precip was between 00z-00z, at least in the southern part of the affected areas anyway, so the nexrad map is more or less relevant estimation. The few observations we have in the GTS (for the whole 36 hour period) are in line with this nexrad map.
The below below shows our NEXRAD verification product with the last HRES forecsast included.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
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Gallery includeLabel mslp_ncep sort comment title MSLP 27 Jan 12z NCEP
The plots below show comparison between ECMWF, UKMO and NCEP HRES for MSLP and precipitation. It is quite clear that the last few runs, apart from the last (27.00) UKMO and also NCEP were better, especially the MetOffice model. The UKMO (and with a little bit less clarity NCEP) MSLP fields are very similar to the analysis and also very consistent. However, the EC-HRES had the eastward shift already discussed yesterday. The earlier runs (2412 2500 and 2512) have the same feature, UKMO and NCEP had the cyclone more to the east.
The 2300 2312 and 2400 runs are a mixed bag, with I think UKMO being the best. We had a good forecast only from the 2400 run, while the metoffice model was quite good already 24 hours before and also better 12 hours earlier. However, their 2400 run was worse.
Gallery
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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