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2. Description of the event
The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 72-hour rainfall on 26 September 00UTC - 29 September 00UTC in a 0.5x0.5 degree box centred on Asheville (35.5N, 82.2W).
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 24 September 00UTC to 29 September 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from 23 September to 29 September, every 24th hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in observations (first plot) and concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and NEXRAD (3rd plot).
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in ENS control forecasts with different lead times.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in AIFS with different lead times.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in AIFS0-ENS member 1 with different lead times.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in 49r1 ENS member 1 with different lead times.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation (27 26 September -29 28 September) from different initial dates.
The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for TC Helene for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 26 September 00UTC (first plot) to 21 September 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 27 September 00UTC (hourglass for BestTrack). HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black). AIFS is included in green.
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