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On 12-17 September a low-pressure system named Boris caused record-breaking rainfall in Central Europe. It led to severe flooding in e.g Austria, Czech Republic, Slovenia and Poland and also caused fatalities in Romania.
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
- The ensemble gradually picked up the signal and was above 99th percentile for Vienna 7 days before the event (6 September).
- Determininstic AIFS showed a very early signal, while AIFS-ENS showed a similar development of the signal as IFS-ENS (and underestimated the maximum intensity)
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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