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The plots below show 24-hour precipitation in observations (first plot, to be added), concatenated short forecasts (second plot). For some reason we are missing observations north of Bologna.
The plots below show 24-hour precipitation in ENS control forecasts with different lead times.
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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- Reasonable signal in the medium-range
- The amplitude of the event was under-predicted
- aIFs-ENS on similar level as IFS