Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Esti
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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Detailed analysis of the event in this article by ESSL: https://www.essl.org/cms/meteorological-analysis-of-extreme-flash-flood-situation-in-the-valencia-region/.The plots below show the 24h precipitation forecast at different lead times for HRES (top) and DestinE 48r1 (middle) and DestinE 49r1 (middle) forecasts valid on the 30th October 2024 at 00 UTC.
The plots below show the 24h precipitation forecast at different lead times for the reduced cloud based mass flux at 4.4 km forecasts valid on the 30th October 2024 at 00 UTC.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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The plots below show 24-hour precipitation in AIFS0-ENS member 1 with different lead times.
The plots below show the 24h precipitation forecast at different lead times for HRES (top) and DestinE 48r1 (middle) and DestinE 49r1 (middle) forecasts valid on the 30th October 2024 at 00 UTC.
The plots below show the 24h precipitation forecast at different lead times for the reduced cloud based mass flux at 4.4 km forecasts valid on the 30th October 2024 at 00 UTC.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation (29 October).
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•No signal beyond 1 week
•From ~23 October a wet signal relative to model climate started to appear
•From ~24 October member were sticking up far above the model climate maximum
•From ~26 October, ensemble median similar to model climate maximum
•Ensemble median around 125 mm/24h is the shortest forecasts, compared to 450 mm in the worst observation
•EcPoints top percentiles reached the magnitude of the worst observation
6. Additional material
The plots below show the 24h precipitation forecast at T+48h lead time for the reduced cloud based mass flux at 4.4 km forecasts valid on the 30th October 2024 at 00 UTC.