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The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation (29 October).
The convective environment was characterised by high CAPE and high shear resulting in high values of the CAPE-shear index. The plots below show the operational forecasts of the EFI and SOT for CAPE-shear.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation for Chiva (split in two figures to fit all forecast types). For AIFS and AIFS-ENS, nearest gridpoint was used instead of area average due to low model resolution.
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Same as Raw ENS animation above, but output is from ecPoint, for a higher threshold: >300mm/12h.
Graph shows the maximum of the 99th percentile ecPoint field in forecasts leading up to the event (over Spain, but always, in practice, close to Turis). The map shows a 200-year return period estimate for 24h gauge-based rainfall totals from ERA5-ecPoint (data from 2000-2019).
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