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The plots below show hit (green), misses (purple) and false alarms (cyan) of predicting precipitation above the 99th percentile of model climate, based on the ensemble median.
ecPoint
The two animations below compare forecasts from the raw ECMWF Ensemble with forecasts from the ecPoint post-processed version of that, for thresholds, respectively, of 150 and 300mm/12h.
Raw ENS probabilities of >150mm/12h (valid time 06-18UTC 29th October 2024), from successive forecasts, at 12h intervals, from 25 Oct 00UTC to 29 Oct 00UTC (see titles)
Same as Raw ENS animation above, but output is from ecPoint, for a higher threshold: >300mm/12h.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show forecasts of weekly precipitation anomalies for 28 October - 3 November.
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