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Water-vapour satellite images from Meteosat, every 3rd hour.
Sounding 24 January 00UTC from ValenciaValentia.
2.4 Climatological perspective
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The plot below shows the assimilation of the Valentia radiosonde from 24 January 00UTC. Observation (black), first guess (blue) and analysis (red). This was the time when the dry intrusion was just reaching this point.
3.2 Single Forecasts for the event (see Section 2.1 for definition)
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Note that we currently have problems to decode the wind gust observations from Ireland. The maximum on Mace Head (black box) was 51 m/s, corresponding to grey in the colour range.
Control forecast
DestinE
AIFS deterministic
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While all forecasts had an ensemble mean above the model climate mean, the signal for the event strengthen gradually from 18 January and onwards. From 22 January 00UTC all members were above the model climate maximum (black triangle). The maximum observed was 51 m/s.
Legend:
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE - dark-green dot
ENS distribution - blue
ENS m-climate - cyan
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The plots below show the weekly average ensemble mean of z500 valid 20-26 December. The forecast from 13 January gave some indications of the through over Eastern Atlantic.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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