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The plots below show hit (green), misses (purple) and false alarms (cyan) of predicting precipitation above the 99th percentile of model climate, based on the ensemble mean.
Forecasts for the z500-predictor for extreme precipitation over the Central Alpine region (see Dorrington et al. fore details: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4622). The forecast is based on the 100-member sub-seasonal ensemble. Thanks to Josh Dorrington (Uni. Bergen) for the figures.
Same as above but for the Integrated Water Vapour flux predictor.
From around 5 April, both predictors showed anomalous high values, giving an early indication for conditions favourable for extreme precipitation around 14-17 April.
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts
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