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3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage
3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)
Observations for the event
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Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS deterministic -single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS ensemble (AIFS diffusion ensemble ~1 degree resolution)
3.3 Ensemble distribution
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
The plots below shows the EFI for 3-day mean temperature 29 April 1 May.
Forecast Evolution plot
The plot below shows the evolution plot for the 2-metre temperature on 30 April 12UTC for Reading.
Legend:
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE - dark-green dot
AIFS-single - cyan dot
ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS-CRPS distribution - pink
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle
The plot below shows the evolution plot for 3-day mean temperature for London-Heathrow (see event definition). Same legend as above.
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts
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