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3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage

 

3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)

Observations for the event

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Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)

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DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)

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AIFS deterministic -single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)

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AIFS ensemble (AIFS diffusion ensemble ~1 degree resolution)

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3.3 Ensemble distribution

EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)

The plots below shows the EFI for 3-day mean temperature 29 April 1 May.

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Forecast Evolution plot

The plot below shows the evolution plot for the 2-metre temperature on 30 April 12UTC for Reading.

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Legend:

Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE - dark-green dot
AIFS-single - cyan dot

ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS-CRPS distribution - pink
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle

The plot below shows the evolution plot for 3-day mean temperature for London-Heathrow (see event definition). Same legend as above.

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3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts

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