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Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
Compared to the ECMWF analysis, one can note the colder temperatures over France.
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
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AIFS -single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
The warm temperatures over France is better captured in AIFS.
AIFS ensemble (AIFS diffusion ensemble ~1 degree resolution)
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The plots below shows the EFI for 3-day mean temperature 29 April 1 May. The event was well captured at least from 24 April and onwads.
Forecast Evolution plot
The plot below shows the evolution plot for the 2-metre temperature on 30 April 12UTC for Reading. The prediction was extremely good from AIFS-single.
Legend:
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE - dark-green dot
AIFS-single - cyan dot
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6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Extremely good prediction by AIFS-Single more than 7 days in advance
- Good predictability for the event overall
- Too cold temperatures in IFS over France
6.2 Experience from general performance/other cases
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