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Currently based on the 2-metre temperature for Reading (51.5, 1W) on 30 April 12UTCon 30 April 12UTC for a 0.25x0.25 degree box centred on Troyes, France (48.3N, 4E). An evolution plot is also available for the 3-day mean temperature (29 April -1 May) for a 0.25x0.25 degree box centred on London-Heathrow (51.5N, 0.5W).
2.2 Analyses
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 26 April to 2 May.
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3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage
The plots below show the observation statistics for assimilation of 2-metre temperature (left) and 2-metre relative humidity (right), for the box 45-50N, 0-7E.
3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)
Observations for the event
SYNOP observations (left) and ECMWF analysis (right).
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
Compared to the ECMWF analysis, one can note the colder temperatures over France.
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS -single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
The warm temperatures over France is better captured in AIFS.
AIFS ensemble (AIFS diffusion ensemble ~1 degree resolution)
3.3 Ensemble distribution
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The plot below shows the evolution plot for the 2-metre temperature on 30 April 12UTC for ReadingTroyes, France. The prediction was extremely good from AIFS-single. The IFS forecasts were much colder than AIFS-single and AIFS-CRPS, which were in line with the observation.
Legend:
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE - dark-green dot
AIFS-single - cyan dot
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The plot below shows the evolution plot for 3-day mean temperature for London-Heathrow Troyes, France (see event definition). Same legend as above.
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts
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