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3.5 Comparison with other centres
3.6 EFAS
The plots below show the flood forecast products from 22 Dec (left) and 25 Dec (right). The ECMWF forecast missed the intensification in the forecast from 22 Dec.
The plots below show the flash flood product from EFAS from 22 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec and 26 Dec. The forecast from 22 Dec did not give any warnings for the 26-27 December. The forecast from 24 had warning points in Scotland but not in England. On the 25 the warning points shifted to the south and started to appear over Ireland and finally on 26 Dec (when the event had started), warning points are in Scotland, England and Ireland. This changes in the forecast is consistent with the results in Section 3.3 (the flash flood product is based on COSMO-LEPS that uses ECMWF ENs as initial and boundary conditions).
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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- Early signal in monthly (and seasonal forecasts) for a wet anomaly in December
- Problems with the details of the cyclone development on 25-26 December led to errors in the precipitation pattern also in the short-range (>24h)
- Underestimation of the magnitude of the precipiation in both o-suite and e-suite
6. Additional material