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The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 72-hour rainfall on 13 September 00UTC - 16 September 00UTC in Vienna, Austria (48.2N, 16.4E). Some diagnostics will also be for Ostrava in Czech Rep. (49.9N, 18.1E)
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 11 September 00UTC to 16 September 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 10 September to 16 September.
For Vienna, 7 stations was found nearby (3-day accumulation):
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The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in AIFS0 AIFS-ENS (diffusion model with 1 degree resolution) member 1 with different lead times.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in AIFS-CRPS-ENS (0.25 degree resolution) member 1 with different lead times.
Step 0 missing.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI for 3-day precipitation (13-15 September).
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Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS control–red
ENS - blue box-and-whisker
AIFS - cyan dot
Desint4.4km - evergreen dot
AIFS-ENS - grey box-and-whisker
cy49r1 ENS - purple box-and-whisker
Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker
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The plot below shows the evolution plot for 3-day precipitation in a large box (48-51N, 14-18E, see attached observation plot below).
The plot below shows the same evolution plot for 3-day accumulation as above but with the AIFS-CRPS ensemble in pink.
The plots below show hit (green), misses (purple) and false alarms (cyan) of predicting precipitation above the 99th percentile of model climate, based on the ensemble median.
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The plots below show the same as above but for AIFS-ENS.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show forecasts of weekly precipitation anomalies for 9-15 September.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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