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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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Newsletter article for this case: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/180/news/unprecedented-rainfall-united-arab-emirates
1. Impact
On 16 April the United Arab Emirates was hit by record breaking rainfall. Evidently many places recorded over 100mm. Some had 1.5 years worth of rain in one day (e.g. Dubai airport where the total was 142mm). The rain actually began before 04UTC Tue, and media indicate that the two highest totals 'during Tuesday' (24h rainfall) were 259.5mm in Khatam Al Shaklah in Al Ain and 239mm in Kalba, in Sharjah. The former represents an all-time UAE area record daily rainfall (records go back 75 years). Unsurprisingly there were major impacts, from the rain, the gusty winds (and even hail) as discussed, for example, in an ITV news bulletin here, and these are continuing today - see e.g. here.
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The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation for Dubai on 16 April.
Signs of a rainfall extreme was seen from 6 April - 10 days before the event in the ensemble (median passed the model climate maximum).
The plot below shows the same evolution plot as above but with the AIFS-CRPS ensemble in pink.
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS control–red
DestinE4.4km - purple dot
ENS - blue box-and-whisker
AIFS - pcyan dotcyan dot
AIFS-CRPS - pink box-and-whisker
Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker
Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.
Signs of a rainfall extreme was seen from 6 April - 10 days before the event in the ensemble (median passed the model climate maximum).
The plot below shows the same evolution plot as above but with the AIFS-CRPS ensemble in pink.
ecPoint
16th April
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