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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Page from Rebecca: June 2025 |
1. Overview
During the last days of June and the beginning of July a heatwave affected large parts of Western Europe and also Morocco. In Spain and Morocco, several maximum temperature records for June was broken.
The Morocco part of the event is covered on the page: 202506 - Heatwave - Morocco
2. Analyses and Observations
2.1 Event Definition
Here we will focus on the 3-day temperature in Frankfurt am Main on 30 June-2 July, keeping in mind that it was a lot of places that were affected. The choice of Frankfurt is to see how well the forecasting system captured the northerly extent of the event.
2.2 Analyses
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 27 June to 3 July.
2.3 Observations
2.4 Climatological perspective
An article about the climatological perspective from C3S can be found here: https://climate.copernicus.eu/heatwaves-contribute-warmest-june-record-western-europe
3. Forecasts
3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage
3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)
Observations and analysis for the event
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AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
3.3 Ensemble distribution
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
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ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS distribution - pink
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts
The plots below show ensemble mean weekly average of 2-metre temperature 30 June - 6 July in forecasts from different initial dates (all Mondays).
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Hazard Forecasts
5. Dedicated Experiments
6. Event Summary
6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Exceptional signal in AIFS-single