Material from: Linus
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Overview
During the last days of June and beginning of July, Argentina (and Uruguay) were hit but unusually cold temperatures.
https://www.infobae.com/sociedad/2025/07/01/como-sigue-la-ola-polar-rigen-nuevas-alertas-por-bajas-temperaturas-en-todo-el-pais/
https://www.lanacion.com.ar/clima/ola-polar-en-argentina-hasta-cuando-durara-nid30062025/
https://www.infobae.com/america/ciencia-america/2025/06/30/alerta-por-frio-intenso-manana-podria-registrarsla-temperatura-mas-baja-del-ano-en-el-amba/
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/uruguay-cold-snap-state-emergency-b2778071.html
2. Analyses and Observations
2.1 Event Definition
Currently based on the 3-day mean temperature 30 June - 2 July in a 0.25 degree box in Buenos Aires (34.7S, 58.75W).
2.2 Analyses
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 27 June to 1 July.
2.3 Observations
2.4 Climatological perspective
3. Forecasts
3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage
3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)
Observations and analysis for the event
(Do be added after the event.)
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
3.3 Ensemble distribution
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
Forecast Evolution plot
Legend:
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
AIFS-single - cyan dot
ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS distribution - pink
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts
The plots below show ensemble mean weekly average of 2-metre temperature 30 June - 6 July in forecasts from different initial dates (all Mondays).
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Hazard Forecasts
5. Dedicated Experiments
6. Event Summary
6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Jump in predictions between forecasts from 25 12UTC and 26 June 12UTC.