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Both the O-and E-suite forecasts are similar with peak values of the rainfall of about 100 mm in 24 hours in Cumbria. The E-suite looks marginally better. The UKMO global model was a bit better in terms of precipitation amounts but generally all three forecasts were quite a lot below the observed peak values. It's worth mentioning that orographical enhancement of precipitation played a major role and the models picked well the highest amounts over the orographical barriers.
Much higher resolution MOGREPS picked much better the extreme values of precipitation compared to HRES. The maximum value of precipitation over Cumbria in MOGREPS is 202 mm/24h.
3.3 ENS
The EFI values were above 90% more than 3 days in advance. High values of the EFI and SOT show pretty well the potential of extreme rainfall in the affected areas. For the ENS the extreme rainfall values were lower compared to HRES.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
Verification of the monthly forecast valid the week 30 November - 6 December. The forecast from two weeks before the event had a wet signal for the northern British Isles and southern Norway.
The early signal was connected to the prediction of a postive NAO phase, as seen in the MSLP anomalies below.
(The plots have been lost...)
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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