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Below 24-h precipitation accumulated in the British Islands on the 4th August 2025 at different lead times with the ENS control (oper) and DestinE. 36-h maximum wind gusts in the operational 9 km forecast and DestinE at different lead times.
Below visible satellite simulated image from IFS oper and DestinE 4 km from forecast run 4 and 5 August 2025 00 UTC and valid at T+12h. Eumetsat 12 sat image valid at the same time.
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The plot below shows the forecast evolution for the mean wind in a 0.5x0.5 degree box centered on Southern Uist (see box above) valid 12UTC on 4 August. AIFS-ENS captured better the wind speed than IFS-ENS for this location in the forecast from 31 July and 1 August.
Legend:
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE - dark-green dot
AIFS-single - cyan dot
ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS distribution - pink
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle
The plot below shows the forecast evolution for the maximum mean wind in a 5x5 degree box centered on Southern Uist (see plot below for box) valid 12UTC on 4 August. Here we see much higher maximum wind in the short-range forecasts from IFS compared to both AIFS and AIFS-ENS. Some members in IFS-ENS has very extreme winds. This should be compared to IFS cycle 50r1 once e-suite is available.
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