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AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
Below visible satellite simulated image from IFS oper and DestinE 4 km from forecast run 4 and 5 August 2025 00 UTC and valid at T+12h. Eumetsat 12 sat image valid at the same time.
3.3 Ensemble distribution
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The plot below shows the forecast evolution for the maximum mean wind in a 5x5 degree box centered on Southern Uist (see plot below for box) valid 12UTC on 4 August. Here we see much higher maximum wind in the short-range forecasts from IFS compared to both AIFS and AIFS-ENS. Some members in IFS-ENS has very extreme winds. This should be compared to IFS cycle 50r1 once e-suite is available.
Below we have the ensemble stamps for MSLP for ENS control and ensemble members. Valid at 4 August 2025 12 UTC and T+36, T+84h and T+132, for ENS control and IFS ensemble members and AIFS single and AIFS-CRPS
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
MSLP errors (FC-AN) on the 4 August 2025 00 UTC forecast run valid at T+36h, T+84h and T+132h for various forecast models. 
500 hPa geopotential errors (FC-AN) on the 4 August 2025 00 UTC forecast run valid at T+72h and T+120h for various forecast models.
4. Hazard Forecasts
5. Dedicated Experiments
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