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ECMWF plans to upgrade On 8 March 2016, ECMWF upgraded the horizontal resolution of its analyses and forecasts.The upgrade will have has a horizontal resolution that translates to about 9 km for HRES and the data assimilation (the outer loop of the 4D-Var) and to about 18 km for the ENS up to day 15. The resolution of the ENS extended (day 16 up to day 46) will be is about 36 km. A new cycle of the IFS will be has been introduced to implement the horizontal resolution upgrade. This cycle is labelled 41r2 and includes a number of enhancements to the model and data assimilation listed herein. The detailed specification of the resolution upgrades included in IFS cycle 41r2 are:
These upgrades
During the Release Candidate test phase forecast data will be made available close to real time via |
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The structural representation of tropical cyclones is improved with a more clearly defined eye and better resolved rainbands. Evidence from case studies shows that the increase in resolution leads to improved forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity in the ENS. Initial ensemble spread is also improved for tropical cyclones by the increased resolution in the EDA. For HRES, the tropical cyclone impact of the resolution change is smaller. Case studies show a better representation of the precipitation pattern around the core of tropical cyclones in the new cycle. This improvement is due to changes in model numerics (move to cubic grid and changes in the semi-Lagrangian scheme).
Wave forecast
Results for ocean wave height are positive, except for a deterioration in the very short range (day 1) in the tropics when verified against the analysis. A similar short-range degradation is seen for 10m wind speed over ocean areas. This is due to an increase in activity of the low-level wind and wave analyses associated with the move from TL1279 to TCO1279. When verified against observations (buoys), no degradation is seen. Wave period has a mixed signal and may require some retuning in the next cycle.
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Note that the identifiers for the wave models have not changed. |
GRIB edition 1 message size
The identifiers have also not been updated for a a number of HRES analysis products arising from the surface analysis:
The identifiers for these 6 surface analysis parameters will be updated to 146 during the week beginning 14 March 2016. |
GRIB edition 1 message size
Users may note that the value stored in Octets 5-7 of Section 0 (Indicator Section) used to specify the total Users may note that the value stored in Octets 5-7 of Section 0 (Indicator Section) used to specify the total message length of a GRIB edition 1 message does not correspond to the actual size of the message. This is the result of a convention used by ECMWF to encode fields in GRIB edition 1 where the size of the binary data section (Section 4) is too large to be stored in the header. This convention is used whenever the binary data section is larger than 8388607 bytes (Hex 7F FF FF). The correct message length, taking into account this convention, is reported by the grib_api key "totalLength". Similarly, the length of Section 4 (Binary Data Section) reported correctly by the grib_api key "section4Length".
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The current ENS variable resolution overlap products from both atmosphere and wave forecasts and hindcasts (MARS class="OD", STREAM=EFOV, STREAM=EFHO, STREAM=ENWH, EWHO) provided from day 9 to 10 are discontinued. Overlap data is provided instead from day 14 to 15 for ENS Extended only, when it is run, twice per week on Mondays and Thursdays.
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Simulated satellite images operationally available operational as charts from the ECMWF web site and as GRIB fields from MARS are currently not being produced by 41r2. Updates on their availability will be provided via this web pagehave been enhanced significantly at IFS cycle 41r2. See Simulated satellite data for further information about the enhancements made and how to access the updated products.
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ENS variable resolution overlap products (MARS class="OD", STREAM=EFOV, EFHO, ENWH and EWHO) provided currently from day 9 to 10 will also be discontinued. Thus, all EFOV, EFHO, ENWH and EWHO requirements will be taken out of dissemination streams by ECMWF on the day of 41r2 cycle implementationby the end of March 2016. Until that date, ECMWF will continue to provide compatibility products ast STEP=240. Users of these products are encouraged to change their requirements at the earliest opportunity to make best use of the harmonised resolution of the ENS products up to and including day 15.
New overlap data, provided from day 14 to 15 for ENS Extended run, will have to be requested by users themselves once 41r2 cycle has been implemented.
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IFS cycle 41r2 test data is accessible via the ecCharts layers menu, identified by the label "esuite 0069" as shown in the screenshot on the left. They can be displayed as any other layers of ecCharts, and they can be saved in the Dashboard, as seen in the screenshot on the right.
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| Date | Reason for update |
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| 4 November 2015 |
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| 8 December 2015 |
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| 14 January 2016 |
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| 10 February 2016 |
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| 10 March 2016 |
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