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DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
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The plots below show the EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation on 28 Sept.
Forecast Evolution plot
The evolution plot below shows the forecasts for 24-hour precipitation inside the box outlined above.
Legend:
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE 4.4km - evergreen
AIFS-single - cyan dot
ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS distribution - pink
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle
Tropical cyclone forecasts
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The plots below show forecasts from IFS AIFS with the symbols indicating the intensity and position on 28 September 00UTC (AIFS-single - red, control forecast - blue, perturbed members - grey, BestTrack -black).
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6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Better prediction by AIFS-ENS than IFS-ENS in the medium-range (e.g 21 September)
6.2 Experience from general performance/other cases
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