Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Calum, Tim
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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The plots below shows the analysis for z500 and t850 (left) and short forecast for MSLP and 12-hour precipitation (right), both valid 7 August 00z. Skopje is located on the eastern edge of the upper-level trough.
The list below shows the metars from Skopje with observations of thunderstorms (TS) highlighted.
The plot below show satellite image (from Dundee) from 16UTC (left) for 20UTC (right) on 6 August. In the left panel Skopje is marked with a tiny black symbol.
The plot below shows the 24-hour precipitation accumulations from observations received via GTS. The black dot is from Skopje and has more than 90 mm. Unfortunately we do not have any observations from Kosovo and cannot verify the northward extent of the cell.
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The plots below show HRES forecasts for 24-hour precipitation (6 August 06z - 7 August 06z) and MSLP.
The left plot below shows the 2-metre dew point forecast (shade) and observations (symbols) for the 12-hour forecast from 6 August 00z. The right plot shows the time-series of the dew point for Skopje from HRES (red) and two nearby stations (black). For Skopje the dew point was clearly underestimated just before the convection started.
Examining a Skopje model sounding for 15UTC, and applying observed dewpoints and temperatures (at the true, lower altitude of Skopje) for a parcel curve construction, one sees the potential to release much more CAPE (maybe 5x as much as in the model) and no CIN. The nearest actual sounding from Nis, to the N, has similar Td values to the light green parcel curve, also suggesting this curve is not unreasonable. In addition we have very substantial wind shear on the sounding (conducive to storm longevity) and perhaps some dynamically forced ascent as evening arrived, from an upper trough to the S (to also help keep storms going).
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for precipitation on 6 August from different initial times (all 00z).
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- The extreme rainfall was missed over Skopje, but present further to the north in the forecasts
- Negative influence of very dry soil in the EFAS forecast?
- Underestimation of the convection due to too low dew point?