Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ivan, Mohamed
...
1. Impact
On 2 September the tropical cyclone Hermine made landfall on the north-western side of Florida.
...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hermine
During its life-time the cyclones cyclone challenged the forecasting systems system several times. Firstly, whether or not the cyclone was going to develop east of Florida, later about the landfall on the Gulf of Mexico and finally about reintensification re-intensification over the Atlantic and a landfall on the U.S east-coast.
...
The sequence of plots below shows 12-hour forecasts of MSLP and precipitation (as a substitute of analyses) valid from 28 August 00z to 6 August 00zwith 00, zwith 24 hours apart. Before the sequence starts a convective system was present over the Caribbean and was on 25 August located north -west of Puerto RicoHispaniola. On the 28-29 August the convection reached Florida. TC Hermine was upgraded to hurricane on 1 September and make made landfall on northern Florida on 2 September. The storm later moved to north-east and reached the Atlantic on 4 September.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
During different stages of the evolution of the Hermine, extensive dropsonde missions took place, e.g by using the NASA Global Hawk platform. The different plots below show the observation statistics for dropsondes for temperature (left) temperatures and wind vector difference (right) for the days with most dropsondes. The panels in each plot shows the first guess departures (obs-fg, right) and analysis departures (obs-an, left). The top row is for all dropsonde observations and the bottom for used observations. Each panels include averaged statistics in the title bar.
25 August 12z
30 August 00z
...