...
We will also evaluate the 243-hour day precipitation on 20 19-21 January in a one 0.5x0.5 box on Sicily (37.7N, 15E) and one box over north-eastern Tunisia (36.5N, 15E10.5E).
2.2 Analyses
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 18 January 00UTC to 22 January 00UTC, every 12th hour
...
3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)
The plots below show the forecasts for the wave event.
Analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
...
The plots below show the EFI for 243-hour day precipitation valid 20 19-21 January.
Forecast Evolution plot
...
The evolution plot below shows the forecasts for precipitation on 20 19-21 January inside the box boxes on Sicily and in Tunisia outlined in the observation plot plots below.
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts
...
6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Early signal in the forecast for the wave extreme
- Good signal for the precipitation over Sicily
- Less skill for the part of Tunisia
6.2 Experience from general performance/other cases
...