This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the MAM 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 2 6 forecasts initialized between Thursday 12th February 2026 and Thursday 19th February March 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview.
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| title | Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunHybrid | 1 | 0.11103 | 0.165142 | 0.0911 | -0.029004 | 0.038057 | 0.071048 | 0.042056 | 0.142149 | 0.117034 | 0.096107 | 0.104132 | 0.164102 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunAdjust | 27 | 0.108084 | 0.154116 | 0.098093 | 0.049016 | -0.007003 | 0.083068 | 0.045 | 0.132118 | 0.081034 | 0.123087 | 0.112103 | 0.12707 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | Fengshun | 15 | 0.056035 | 0.063036 | 0.04305 | 0.034005 | 0.096032 | 0.029009 | -0.019014 | 0.123092 | -0.006024 | 0.00201 | 0.08047 | 0.113055 | | AIFSLP | 2 | AIFSgaiaLPM | 32 | 0.102095 | 0.144129 | 0.092095 | -0.015001 | 0.042093 | 0.07204 | 0.012036 | 0.149143 | 0.084025 | 0.062113 | 0.11131 | 0.19114 | | AIFSMicroEnsemble | 23 | AIFSthalassaHuracan | 93 | 0.088093 | 0.117124 | 0.093098 | -0.001004 | 0.053071 | 0.023041 | -0.002068 | 0.188125 | 0.01804 | 0.091082 | 0.103129 | 0.118127 | | AIFSMicroEnsemble | 23 | AIFSheraMicroDuet | 114 | 0.083087 | 0.119116 | 0.069094 | -0.01202 | 0.041047 | 0.039045 | -0.082068 | 0.127103 | 0.038051 | 0.062101 | 0.125111 | 0.15612 | | CLINTMicroEnsemble | 3 | CLINTMFStillLearning | 49 | 0.101079 | 0.156104 | 0.072095 | 0.038017 | 0.05036 | 0.056039 | -0.012066 | 0.156094 | 0.153035 | 0.06099 | 0.08108 | 0.199117 | | CLINT | 34 | CLINTDDCLINTMF | 5 | 0.101086 | 0.154111 | 0.072089 | -0.048013 | 0.046094 | 0.056049 | -0.00602 | 0.16149 | 0.16041 | 0.056074 | 0.075117 | 0.199088 | | CLINT | 34 | CLINTSECLINTDD | 106 | 0.088084 | 0.143111 | 0.065086 | -0.04009 | 0.038085 | 0.015049 | -0.019015 | 0.176148 | 0.15705 | 0.03068 | 0.049113 | 0.189087 | | LPCLINT | 4 | LPMCLINTSE | 611 | 0.099062 | 0.153082 | 0.07207 | -0.009014 | 0.049079 | 0.061002 | -0.002 | 0.1113 | 0.11023 | 0.082015 | 0.101103 | 0.18307 | | MicroEnsembleAIFS | 5 | MicroDuetAIFSgaia | 78 | 0.093084 | 0.146101 | 0.075107 | -0.03021- | 0.012081 | 0.066038 | 0.055048 | 0.103158 | 0.101008 | 0.091079 | 0.067126 | 0.18082 | | MicroEnsembleAIFS | 5 | HuracanAIFShera | 810 | 0.092066 | 0.143082 | 0.066087 | -0.016026 | 0.015072 | 0.068037 | -0.025015 | 0.115157 | -0.101037 | 0.057055 | 0.069115 | 0.19044 | | MicroEnsembleAIFS | 5 | StillLearningAIFSthalassa | 12 | 0.07506 | 0.112067 | 0.082094 | -0.031014- | 0.014057 | 0.052015 | -0.07008 | 0.076189 | -0.069022 | 0.082066 | 0.06409 | 0.174023 | | JRSBUHybrid | 6 | slowMambaHybridPPx | 13 | 0.065045 | 0.093042 | 0.06908 | -0.033008 | 0.098097 | -0.079017 | -0.015 | 0.174133 | -0.038049 | 0.025065 | 0.087075 | 0.126021 | | scienceAISBUHybrid | 76 | zephyrHybridAC | 14 | 0.06039 | 0.062025 | 0.077068 | -0.018006 | 0.028115 | 0.045003 | 0.079026 | 0.12412 | -0.052047 | 0.02045 | 0.05706 | -0.082006 | | scienceAIUWAtmosNVIDIA | 7 | ngcmDLESyMS2Sv1 | 16 | 0.052032 | 0.048031 | 0.08804 | -0.016029 | 0.065047 | -0.025047 | 0.083028 | 0.089048 | -0.028038- | 0.017043 | 0.099071 | 0.1028 | | scienceAI | 78 | findforecastngcm | 2517 | -0.02028- | 0.057011 | 0.01407 | -0.032012- | 0.032055 | -0.051013 | 0.021049 | 0.023074 | -0.045025 | -0.09705- | 0.026072 | -0.051029 | | IgnisNeuralis42scienceAI | 8 | GCast42zephyr | 1718 | 0.034024 | -0.038001 | 0.055066 | -0.044004 | 0.001032 | 0.072024 | 0.108057 | 0.0508 | 0.019031 | -0.008058 | 0.02064 | 0.026004 | | UWAtmosNVIDIAscienceAI | 98 | DLESyMS2Sv1findforecast | 1822 | -0.033021 | -0.038057 | 0.019008 | -0.05101 | -0.028009 | 0.08203 | 0.003022 | -0.053001 | -0.048016 | -0.00108 | -0.036018 | -0.1105 | | SBUHybridJR | 109 | HybridPPxslowMamba | 19 | 0.024023 | 0.014031 | 0.057037 | -0.002019 | 0.049027 | -0.01805 | -0.03024 | 0.114116 | -0.01005 | -0.027007 | 0.031032 | 0.016038 | | SBUHybridIgnisNeuralis42 | 10 | HybridACGCast42 | 2120 | 0.005022 | -0.018025 | 0.028029 | -0.002001 | -0.03016 | 0.015033 | -0.066035 | 0.09102 | -0.011027 | -0.011015 | 0.008013 | -0.049009 |
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| title | Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunHybrid | 1 | 0.078059 | 0.106091 | 0.06054 | 0.014002 | 0.046021 | 0.062019 | 0.09304 | 0.078081 | 0.021028 | 0.11108 | 0.092079 | 0.121056 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunAdjust | 2 | 0.075048 | 0.107077 | 0.057042 | -0.005006 | -0.024021 | 0.069044 | 0.084046 | 0.06061 | 0.01103 | 0.142082 | 0.08505 | 0.118043 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | Fengshun | 1011 | 0.039023 | 0.061033 | 0.002025 | -0.008003 | -0.043003 | -0.042005 | -0.049036 | 0.126085 | 0.048012 | 0.073026 | -0.015011 | 0.095043 | | AIFSLP | 2 | AIFSgaiaLPM | 3 | 0.059047 | 0.068077 | 0.056028 | -0.017015 | 0.044031 | 0.054029 | -0.034029 | 0.095073 | -0.023024 | 0.089053 | 0.08077 | 0.074038 | | AIFSMicroEnsemble | 23 | AIFSheraMicroDuet | 144 | 0.034047 | 0.041071 | 0.022042 | 0.012007 | 0.04009 | 0.052026 | 0.00703 | 0.064045 | -0.024043 | 0.02405 | 0.068063 | 0.02064 | | AIFSMicroEnsemble | 23 | AIFSthalassaHuracan | 197 | 0.005044 | -0.04307 | 0.055038 | -0.04016 | 0.02602 | 0.029024 | 0.037024 | 0.074062 | -0.137026- | 0.043039 | 0.072071 | 0.007058 | | MicroEnsemble | 3 | HuracanStillLearning | 49 | 0.056038 | 0.093059 | 0.031038 | -0.016004 | 0.02001 | 0.053019 | 0.05024 | 0.053037 | 0.051034 | 0.063039 | 0.062059 | 0.106059 | | MicroEnsembleCLINT | 34 | MicroDuetCLINTDD | 65 | 0.053046 | 0.08064 | 0.041031 | -0.005008- | 0.002044 | 0.057038 | -0.07003 | 0.031078 | 0.045027 | 0.05053 | 0.057065 | 0.096035 | | MicroEnsembleCLINT | 34 | StillLearningCLINTMF | 96 | 0.04045 | 0.055059 | 0.042033 | -0.015013- | 0.008046 | 0.046045 | -0.071004 | 0.019081 | 0.031021 | 0.027047 | 0.06065 | 0.098032 | | CLINT | 4 | CLINTDDCLINTSE | 513 | 0.053019 | 0.078029 | 0.019013 | -0.016006 | 0.034016 | -0.052017 | -0.016039 | 0.062054 | 0.004011 | 0.068011 | 0.054048 | 0.118021 | | CLINTAIFS | 45 | CLINTMFAIFSgaia | 8 | 0.05104 | 0.072056 | 0.021041 | 0.012006 | 0.033019 | 0.053023 | 0.018008 | 0.0651 | -0.008011 | 0.063054 | 0.053054 | 0.117014 | | CLINTAIFS | 45 | CLINTSEAIFShera | 1110 | 0.037 | 0.061047 | 0.007036 | 0.007005 | 0.025053 | 0.015025 | -0.009016 | 0.053113 | -0.013001 | 0.0503 | 0.034054 | -0.116013 | | LPAIFS | 5 | LPMAIFSthalassa | 723 | -0.052024 | -0.086064 | 0.019033 | -0.026006 | -0.017009 | 0.052001 | -0.001007 | 0.058078 | -0.00915 | -0.062053 | 0.065017 | -0.106076 | | UWAtmosNVIDIASBUHybrid | 6 | DLESyMS2Sv1HybridPPx | 12 | 0.036022 | 0.048022 | 0.011045 | -0.011028 | 0.038051 | -0.039022 | -0.026002 | 0.036079 | -0.016033 | 0.09048 | 0.02059 | -0.025048 | | JRSBUHybrid | 76 | slowMambaHybridAC | 1316 | 0.035015 | 0.05101 | 0.028044 | -0.005023 | 0.052034 | -0.03009- | 0.003022 | 0.079059 | -0.02702 | 0.049048 | 0.053037 | -0.07707 | | scienceAI | 87 | zephyr | 1514 | 0.027016 | 0.026011 | 0.03203 | 0.01014 | 0.004006 | 0.032002 | 0.056029 | 0.047052 | 0.045034 | -0.007023 | 0.023018 | -0.008016 | | scienceAI | 87 | ngcm | 1815 | 0.017015 | 0.009011 | 0.036033 | 0.018016 | 0.031013 | -0.01501 | 0.053027 | 0.045059 | 0.031 | -0.035027 | 0.033017 | -0.013005 | | scienceAI | 87 | findforecast | 2622 | -0.032022 | -0.07056 | 0.001003 | -0.015008 | -0.02013 | 0.011034 | 0.034026 | -0.00901 | -0.022008 | -0.092075 | -0.03102 | -0.091057 | | IgnisNeuralis42 | SBUHybrid8 | 9GCast42 | HybridPPx1716 | 0.013 | 0.026027 | 0.0401 | 0.02006 | -0.021044 | 0.036001 | -0.006024 | -0.0320.074 | -0.014035 | 0.057009 | 0.041012 | -0.04202 | | SBUHybridUWAtmosNVIDIA | 9 | HybridACDLESyMS2Sv1 | 2018 | 0.0012 | 0.006027 | -0.002006 | -0.024025- | 0.035006 | 0.005014 | -0.047012 | 0.02502 | -0.001017 | 0.035054 | -0.006024 | -0.086037 | | IgnisNeuralis42JR | 10 | GCast42slowMamba | 1719 | -0.025001 | 0.041014 | 0.014013 | -0.01006 | -0.042014 | -0.073079 | -0.0501- | 0.01505 | -0.043032 | 0.074012 | 0.011023 | -0.011007 |
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Figures showing aggregated RPSSs for best-performing model from top 10 teams
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing evolution of skill scores
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing percentage of grid points with positive period-aggregated RPSSs
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing observed conditions with respect to defined ERA5 climatology
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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