This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the MAM 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 3 4 forecasts initialized between Thursday 12th February 2026 and Thursday 26th February 5th March 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview.
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| title | Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDUMicroEnsemble | 1 | FengshunHybridHuracan | 1 | 0.087091 | 0.117126 | 0.07808 | -0.006024 | 0.052069 | 0.077056 | 0.044072 | 0.125119 | 0.036059 | 0.067098 | 0.083096 | 0.144 | | CMAandFDUMicroEnsemble | 1 | FengshunAdjustMicroDuet | 54 | 0.07708 | 0.105109 | 0.08078 | 0.001004 | -0.01604 | 0.08906 | 0.059076 | 0.088098 | 0.02805 | 0.097101 | 0.078076 | 0.098121 | | CMAandFDUMicroEnsemble | 1 | FengshunStillLearning | 159 | 0.037067 | 0.036084 | 0.024079 | 0.011008 | 0.076031 | 0.032057 | 0.003075 | 0.085086 | -0.019023 | 0.022082 | 0.043069 | 0.088118 | | AIFSCMAandFDU | 2 | AIFSgaiaFengshunHybrid | 2 | 0.08309 | 0.104122 | 0.08109 | -0.015016 | 0.06051 | 0.078057 | 0.009055 | 0.153136 | 0.01016 | 0.061106 | 0.091098 | 0.143101 | | AIFSCMAandFDU | 2 | AIFSthalassaFengshunAdjust | 8 | 0.066068 | 0.079096 | 0.06408 | -0.015014 | -0.054029 | 0.05066 | -0.034056 | 0.179092 | -0.024008 | 0.065101 | 0.078076 | 0.08106 | | AIFSCMAandFDU | 2 | AIFSheraFengshun | 1116 | 0.052029 | 0.059034 | 0.054022 | -0.02006 | 0.057039 | 0.047018 | -0.078028 | 0.128087 | -0.063035 | 0.0033 | 0.098027 | 0.097055 | | MicroEnsembleLP | 3 | HuracanLPM | 3 | 0.08087 | 0.114118 | 0.05707 | -0.006003 | 0.051097 | 0.072061 | 0.045019 | 0.101135 | 0.07016 | 0.054112 | 0.061095 | 0.173125 | | MicroEnsembleCLINT | 34 | MicroDuetCLINTMF | 65 | 0.075074 | 0.105096 | 0.065058 | -0.015004 | 0.024097 | 0.071064 | -0.054006 | 0.085145 | 0.0604 | 0.061059 | 0.055072 | 0.16138 | | MicroEnsembleCLINT | 34 | StillLearningCLINTDD | 107 | 0.057071 | 0.071093 | 0.068056 | -0.019002 | 0.021085 | 0.066064 | -0.06008 | 0.065143 | 0.023048 | 0.036054 | 0.053067 | 0.156135 | | LPCLINT | 4 | LPMCLINTSE | 410 | 0.079057 | 0.108078 | 0.054048 | -0.015 | 0.075083 | 0.07027 | -0.014022 | 0.114145 | 0.026027 | 0.052035 | 0.07805 | 0.168128 | | CLINTAIFS | 5 | CLINTDDAIFSgaia | 76 | 0.066074 | 0.091093 | 0.04108 | -0.017022 | 0.06607 | 0.065049 | -0.019027 | 0.128144 | 0.066006 | -0.015103 | 0.045086 | 0.181086 | | CLINTAIFS | 5 | CLINTMFAIFSthalassa | 911 | 0.064051 | 0.088057 | 0.039066 | -0.009008 | 0.073049 | 0.066041 | -0.027038 | 0.123189 | -0.05503- | 0.018098 | 0.046053 | 0.18017 | | CLINTAIFS | 5 | CLINTSEAIFShera | 12 | 0.05051 | 0.07206 | 0.033062 | -0.004035 | 0.06061 | 0.02304 | -0.034054 | 0.133146 | -0.049059- | 0.043058 | 0.023082 | 0.173044 | | scienceAI | 6 | zephyrngcm | 13 | 0.043036 | 0.039029 | 0.056069 | 0.003008 | 0.031037 | -0.041019 | 0.077062 | 0.086071 | 0.048038 | -0.013021 | 0.05075 | 0.035039 | | scienceAI | 6 | ngcmzephyr | 1415 | 0.039035 | 0.033027 | 0.065062 | -0.014003 | 0.061012 | -0.015034 | 0.079066 | 0.063083 | 0.045034 | -0.0180 | 0.077057 | 0.061014 | | scienceAI | 6 | findforecast | 2322 | -0.026027 | -0.063066 | 0.00801 | -0.03303 | -0.025014 | 0.02802 | 0.027028 | 0.006003 | -0.033032 | -0.097099 | -0.03024 | -0.066068 | | JRSBUHybrid | 7 | slowMambaHybridPPx | 1614 | 0.034036 | 0.049016 | 0.033069 | -0.004001 | 0.065108 | -0.0520- | 0.014012 | 0.129122 | -0.044067 | 0.033071 | 0.035049 | 0.067011 | | IgnisNeuralis42SBUHybrid | 87 | GCast42HybridAC | 17 | 0.029028 | -0.034001 | 0.036052 | -0.026008 | 0.002109 | 0.062026 | 0.093009 | 0.021093 | -0.038061 | 0.009039 | 0.013039 | -0.009015 | | UWAtmosNVIDIAJR | 98 | DLESyMS2Sv1slowMamba | 18 | 0.028 | 0.031037 | 0.017036 | -0.06102 | 0.02306 | -0.074054 | -0.032012 | 0.022118 | -0.04302 | 0.04037 | 0.027044 | 0.059018 | | SBUHybridIgnisNeuralis42 | 109 | HybridPPxGCast42 | 19 | 0.02026 | 0.002034 | 0.035031 | -0.01027 | -0.089022- | 0.00705 | -0.026059 | 0.088009 | -0.054034 | 0.024008 | 0.019015 | 0.022001 | | SBUHybridUWAtmosNVIDIA | 10 | HybridACDLESyMS2Sv1 | 2120 | 0.005025 | -0.024026 | 0.01301 | -0.009062 | 0.071034 | 0.025069 | -0.037005 | 0.05023 | -0.04604- | 0.002064 | -0.001031- | 0.03022 |
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| title | Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunHybrid | 1 | 0.055065 | 0.074094 | 0.05059 | -0.01006 | 0.019026 | 0.046037 | 0.047045 | 0.069076 | -0.004012 | 0.073091 | 0.071082 | 0.067065 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunFengshunAdjust | 57 | 0.038048 | 0.056082 | 0.022039 | -0.01002 | -0.0036 | 0.028041 | -0.048 | 0.106044 | 0.001008 | 0.063096 | 0.012048 | 0.075062 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunAdjustFengshun | 710 | 0.036038 | 0.06805 | 0.029036 | -0.018004- | 0.0650 | 0.047009 | -0.039038 | 0.041104 | -0.012004 | 0.097044 | 0.028018 | 0.036079 | | MicroEnsemble | 2 | Huracan | 2 | 0.04906 | 0.07088 | 0.042052 | -0.048027 | 0.043045 | 0.035034 | 0.043032 | 0.059067 | 0.032027 | 0.031051 | 0.073088 | 0.087078 | | MicroEnsemble | 2 | MicroDuet | 43 | 0.041054 | 0.053073 | 0.042052 | -0.017002 | 0.017025 | 0.042041 | 0.053044 | 0.033047 | 0.033041 | 0.023046 | 0.05507 | 0.063068 | | MicroEnsemble | 2 | StillLearning | 119 | 0.03044 | 0.034057 | 0.039046 | -0.0130 | 0.008012 | 0.032033 | 0.048034 | 0.023037 | 0.0203 | 0.005032 | 0.051063 | 0.059068 | | LP | 3 | LPM | 34 | 0.043052 | 0.064088 | 0.02026 | -0.007008 | 0.041026 | 0.03903 | -0.027038 | 0.064072 | -0.013 | 0.045068 | 0.06067 | 0.065054 | | CLINTAIFS | 4 | CLINTDDAIFSgaia | 65 | 0.037051 | 0.052077 | 0.011038 | -0.017019 | 0.041016 | 0.042029 | -0.01002 | 0.069093 | -0.0140 | 0.029081 | 0.041049 | 0.087055 | | CLINTAIFS | 4 | CLINTMFAIFShera | 911 | 0.035037 | 0.046048 | 0.013032 | -0.022011 | 0.045052 | 0.046035 | -0.013033 | 0.072102 | -0.025014 | 0.022017 | 0.044049 | 0.083007 | | CLINTAIFS | 4 | CLINTSEAIFSthalassa | 1521 | -0.018011 | -0.03045- | 0.00303 | -0.026011 | -0.032007 | 0.009017 | -0.02035 | 0.052078 | -0.038122 | -0.003039 | 0.024011 | -0.082036 | | AIFSCLINT | 5 | AIFSgaiaCLINTDD | 86 | 0.036049 | 0.05073 | 0.028025 | -0.0017 | 0.01037 | 0.038048 | -0.007016 | 0.089079 | -0.033008 | 0.071059 | 0.027055 | 0.03054 | | AIFSCLINT | 5 | AIFSheraCLINTMF | 168 | 0.018048 | 0.01068 | 0.03027 | -0.025022 | 0.059038 | 0.032054 | -0.02018 | 0.092082 | -0.0510- | 0.016051 | 0.041057 | -0.034052 | | AIFSCLINT | 5 | AIFSthalassaCLINTSE | 2112 | -0.018033- | 0.066053 | 0.035013 | -0.012029 | 0.001029 | 0.022023 | -0.022027 | 0.08063 | -0.143012- | 0.053036 | 0.019041 | -0.057045 | | IgnisNeuralis42SBUHybrid | 6 | GCast42HybridPPx | 1013 | 0.03031 | 0.049022 | 0.021053 | -0.008023- | 0.057082 | -0.051006 | -0.039006- | 0.013084 | -0.039036 | 0.062053 | 0.028072 | -0.008051 | | SBUHybrid | 76 | HybridPPxHybridAC | 1219 | 0.024014 | -0.012001 | 0.043 | -0.029024 | 0.08105 | -0.002- | 0.014018 | 0.064051 | -0.04702 | 0.056043 | 0.06035 | -0.04409 | | SBUHybridIgnisNeuralis42 | 7 | HybridACGCast42 | 1914 | 0.004026 | -0.013042 | 0.029019 | -0.024013 | -0.025058 | 0.006033 | -0.002025 | -0.022004- | 0.027031 | 0.031032 | 0.022024 | -0.063001 | | JR | 8 | slowMamba | 1315 | 0.022025 | 0.038039 | 0.021036 | 0.001024 | 0.012007 | -0.054056 | -0.014026 | 0.072 | 0.007002 | 0.016027 | 0.046058 | 0.037045 | | UWAtmosNVIDIAscienceAI | 9 | DLESyMS2Sv1ngcm | 1416 | 0.01902 | 0.036013 | -0.008039- | 0.035028 | 0.01009 | -0.03012- | 0.002022 | 0.02707 | 0.004019 | -0.072035 | 0.013019 | -0.018006 | | scienceAI | 109 | zephyr | 17 | 0.016019 | 0.011013 | 0.034036 | -0.006011 | -0.013008 | 0.022017 | 0.046031 | 0.05706 | 0.015014 | -0.021031 | 0.01017 | -0.025014 | | scienceAI | 109 | ngcmfindforecast | 1823 | -0.014028 | -0.009073 | 0.033011 | -0.0050 | -0.004001- | 0.012016 | 0.032037 | -0.065007 | -0.029025 | -0.034094 | -0.011013 | -0.018078 | | scienceAIUWAtmosNVIDIA | 10 | findforecastDLESyMS2Sv1 | 2218 | -0.03016- | 0.07303 | -0.008009 | -0.017011- | 0.005014 | 0.006026 | -0.035008- | 0.01019 | -0.024007- | 0.095051 | -0.018019 | -0.088005 |
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Figures showing aggregated RPSSs for best-performing model from top 10 teams
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing evolution of skill scores
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing percentage of grid points with positive period-aggregated RPSSs
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing observed conditions with respect to defined ERA5 climatology
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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