This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the MAM 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 5 6 forecasts initialized between Thursday 12th February 2026 and Thursday 12th 19th March 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview.
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| title | Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunHybrid | 1 | 0.105103 | 0.143142 | 0.10711 | -0.004 | 0.059057 | 0.052048 | 0.068056 | 0.147149 | 0.037034 | 0.122107 | 0.121132 | 0.1102 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunAdjust | 7 | 0.083084 | 0.12116 | 0.088093 | 0.014016 | -0.013003 | 0.059068 | 0.054045 | 0.11118 | 0.032034 | 0.106087 | 0.093103 | 0.07507 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | Fengshun | 1415 | 0.04035 | 0.044036 | 0.04305 | 0.005 | 0.039032 | 0.016009 | -0.022014 | 0.102092 | -0.024 | 0.03201 | 0.042047 | 0.06055 | | MicroEnsembleLP | 2 | HuracanLPM | 2 | 0.1095 | 0.135129 | 0.098095 | -0.001 | 0.076093 | 0.04504 | 0.083036 | 0.122143 | 0.064025 | 0.106113 | 0.122131 | 0.131114 | | MicroEnsemble | 23 | MicroDuetHuracan | 53 | 0.09093 | 0.119124 | 0.093098 | -0.021004 | 0.049071 | 0.05041 | 0.082068 | 0.101125 | 0.06204 | 0.112082 | 0.101129 | 0.117127 | | MicroEnsemble | 23 | StillLearningMicroDuet | 94 | 0.078087 | 0.099116 | 0.094 | 0.02102 | 0.037047 | 0.046045 | 0.079068 | 0.091103 | 0.037051 | 0.098101 | 0.095111 | 0.11512 | | LPMicroEnsemble | 3 | LPMStillLearning | 39 | 0.097079 | 0.134104 | 0.09095 | 0.007017 | 0.092036 | 0.041039 | 0.035066 | 0.146094 | 0.038035 | 0.123099 | 0.118108 | 0.109117 | | AIFSCLINT | 4 | AIFSgaiaCLINTMF | 45 | 0.091086 | 0.11111 | 0.109089 | -0.009013 | 0.083094 | 0.039049 | 0.0502 | 0.161149 | 0.032041 | 0.107074 | 0.121117 | 0.091088 | | AIFSCLINT | 4 | AIFSthalassaCLINTDD | 106 | 0.073084 | 0.077111 | 0.102086 | -0.026009 | 0.073085 | 0.035049 | -0.002015 | 0.207148 | -0.00905 | 0.103068 | 0.095113 | 0.038087 | | AIFSCLINT | 4 | AIFSheraCLINTSE | 11 | 0.072062 | 0.088082 | 0.08807 | -0.002014 | 0.074079 | 0.031002 | -0.017002 | 0.15813 | -0.021023 | 0.084015 | 0.115103 | 0.03907 | | CLINTAIFS | 5 | CLINTMFAIFSgaia | 68 | 0.085084 | 0.112101 | 0.08107 | -0.001021 | 0.091081 | 0.05038 | 0.015048 | 0.153158 | 0.054008 | 0.081079 | 0.097126 | 0.095082 | | CLINTAIFS | 5 | CLINTDDAIFShera | 810 | 0.083066 | 0.11082 | 0.078087 | -0.001026 | 0.081072 | 0.05037 | -0.013015 | 0.152157 | -0.061037 | 0.075055 | 0.092115 | 0.096044 | | CLINTAIFS | 5 | CLINTSEAIFSthalassa | 12 | 0.06806 | 0.096067 | 0.067094 | -0.01014 | 0.077057 | 0.01015 | -0.003008 | 0.144189 | -0.047022 | 0.05066 | 0.08309 | 0.075023 | | SBUHybrid | 6 | HybridPPx | 13 | 0.042045 | 0.027042 | 0.08108 | -0.008 | 0.108097 | -0.01017 | 0.022015 | 0.135133 | -0.049 | 0.068065 | 0.063075 | 0.008021 | | SBUHybrid | 6 | HybridAC | 1514 | 0.036039 | 0.011025 | 0.068 | -0.013006 | 0.125115 | 0.009003 | 0.031026 | 0.11512 | -0.04047 | 0.041045 | 0.05306 | -0.024006 | | JRUWAtmosNVIDIA | 7 | slowMambaDLESyMS2Sv1 | 16 | 0.035032 | 0.052031 | 0.0304 | -0.025029 | 0.052047 | -0.054047- | 0.03028 | 0.125048 | -0.031038 | 0.028043 | 0.033071 | 0.058028 | | scienceAI | 8 | ngcm | 17 | 0.035028 | 0.021011 | 0.07407 | 0.02012 | 0.048055 | -0.016013 | 0.053049 | 0.077074 | 0.028025 | -0.02705 | 0.082072 | 0.036029 | | scienceAI | 8 | zephyr | 1918 | 0.032024 | -0.014001 | 0.071066 | 0.01004 | 0.019032 | 0.026024 | 0.066057 | 0.08508 | 0.029031 | -0.017058 | 0.069064 | 0.009004 | | scienceAI | 8 | findforecast | 22 | -0.025021 | -0.066057 | 0.012008 | -0.01501 | -0.009 | 0.02503 | 0.03022 | -0.004001 | -0.032016 | -0.09508 | -0.019018 | -0.06205 | | UWAtmosNVIDIAJR | 9 | DLESyMS2Sv1slowMamba | 1819 | 0.034023 | 0.035031 | 0.03037 | -0.021019 | 0.044027 | -0.05305 | -0.022024 | 0.037116 | -0.012005 | -0.066007 | 0.055032 | 0.026038 | | IgnisNeuralis42 | 10 | GCast42 | 20 | 0.026022 | 0.031025 | 0.034029 | -0.004001 | -0.021016 | 0.042033 | 0.044035 | 0.01702 | 0.032027 | -0.001015 | 0.018013 | 0.006009 |
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| title | Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunHybrid | 1 | 0.072059 | 0.107091 | 0.064054 | -0.005002 | 0.033021 | 0.03019 | 0.03404 | 0.092081 | 0.027028 | 0.08608 | 0.091079 | 0.069056 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunAdjust | 32 | 0.056048 | 0.087077 | 0.048042 | 0.009006 | -0.02021 | 0.049044 | 0.043046 | 0.069061 | 0.01603 | 0.082 | 0.05505 | 0.066043 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | Fengshun | 11 | 0.034023 | 0.042033 | 0.04025 | -0.004003 | -0.005003 | -0.0005 | -0.03036 | 0.098085 | -0.003012 | 0.014026 | 0.024011 | 0.077043 | | MicroEnsembleLP | 2 | HuracanLPM | 23 | 0.056047 | 0.079077 | 0.056028 | -0.021015 | 0.041031 | 0.034029 | -0.024029 | 0.074073 | 0.006024 | 0.03053 | 0.095077 | 0.077038 | | MicroEnsemble | 23 | MicroDuet | 64 | 0.054047 | 0.073071 | 0.054042 | 0.003007 | 0.025009 | 0.038026 | 0.03203 | 0.052045 | 0.038043 | 0.04205 | 0.078063 | 0.07064 | | MicroEnsemble | 23 | StillLearningHuracan | 97 | 0.046044 | 0.06307 | 0.047038 | -0.002016 | 0.01502 | 0.03024 | 0.023024 | 0.045062 | 0.038026 | 0.036039 | 0.073071 | 0.068058 | | CLINTMicroEnsemble | 3 | CLINTDDStillLearning | 49 | 0.055038 | 0.08059 | 0.038 | -0.023004 | 0.04001 | 0.045019 | -0.015024 | 0.087037 | 0.015034 | 0.057039 | 0.077059 | 0.048059 | | CLINT | 34 | CLINTMFCLINTDD | 5 | 0.055046 | 0.077064 | 0.04031 | -0.027008 | 0.042044 | 0.05038 | -0.015003 | 0.089078 | 0.009027 | 0.054053 | 0.079065 | 0.045035 | | CLINT | 34 | CLINTSECLINTMF | 136 | 0.032045 | 0.047059 | 0.023033 | -0.029013 | 0.03046 | 0.007045 | -0.039004 | 0.062081 | -0.019021 | 0.004047 | 0.069065 | 0.041032 | | LPCLINT | 4 | LPMCLINTSE | 713 | 0.053019 | 0.089029 | 0.032013 | -0.018006 | 0.029016 | -0.026017 | -0.038039 | 0.075054 | 0.011 | 0.057011 | 0.083048 | 0.054021 | | AIFS | 5 | AIFSgaia | 8 | 0.05104 | 0.07056 | 0.052041 | 0.003006 | 0.026019 | 0.025023 | 0.007008 | 0.1051 | -0.007011 | 0.05054 | 0.067054 | 0.046014 | | AIFS | 5 | AIFShera | 10 | 0.046037 | 0.059047 | 0.045036 | 0.006005 | 0.058053 | 0.033025 | -0.023016 | 0.118113 | -0.015001 | 0.01303 | 0.069054 | -0.019013 | | AIFS | 5 | AIFSthalassa | 2023 | -0.002024 | -0.028064 | 0.048033 | -0.0006 | -0.006009 | 0.021001 | -0.016007 | 0.094078 | -0.14315 | -0.035053 | 0.04017 | -0.026076 | | SBUHybrid | 6 | HybridPPx | 12 | 0.032022 | 0.033022 | 0.057045 | -0.035028 | 0.069051 | -0.02022 | -0.009002 | 0.089079 | -0.033 | 0.058048 | 0.076059 | -0.047048 | | SBUHybrid | 6 | HybridAC | 1416 | 0.02015 | 0.01301 | 0.053044 | -0.032023 | 0.049034 | -0.007009 | 0.015022 | 0.066059 | -0.02402 | 0.059048 | 0.045037 | -0.07707 | | IgnisNeuralis42scienceAI | 7 | GCast42zephyr | 1514 | 0.019016 | 0.029011 | 0.01803 | 0.014 | -0.051006 | 0.026002 | 0.018029 | 0.003052 | 0.023034 | -0.011023 | 0.019018 | -0.003016 | | scienceAI | 87 | ngcm | 1615 | 0.018015 | 0.013011 | 0.039033 | 0.019016 | 0.016013 | -0.01401 | 0.021027 | 0.065059 | 0.027031 | -0.042027 | 0.021017 | -0.007005 | | scienceAI | 87 | zephyrfindforecast | 1722 | -0.018022 | -0.011056 | 0.034003 | 0.01008 | -0.005013 | 0.009034 | 0.027026 | -0.05301 | -0.03008 | -0.045075 | -0.02302 | -0.006057 | | scienceAIIgnisNeuralis42 | 8 | findforecastGCast42 | 2317 | -0.023013- | 0.062027 | 0.00601 | 0.004006 | -0.004044 | 0.029001 | 0.026024 | -0.010- | 0.008035 | -0.08009- | 0.014012 | -0.05802 | | JRUWAtmosNVIDIA | 9 | slowMambaDLESyMS2Sv1 | 18 | 0.014012 | 0.024027 | -0.034006 | -0.003025 | 0.011006 | -0.062014 | -0.013012 | 0.0702 | -0.027017 | 0.007054 | 0.05024 | -0.015037 | | UWAtmosNVIDIAJR | 10 | DLESyMS2Sv1slowMamba | 19 | -0.01001 | 0.017014 | -0.005013 | -0.018006 | -0.012014 | -0.024079 | -0.01801 | 0.01205 | -0.003032 | 0.029012 | 0.034023 | -0.013007 |
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Figures showing aggregated RPSSs for best-performing model from top 10 teams
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing evolution of skill scores
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing percentage of grid points with positive period-aggregated RPSSs
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing observed conditions with respect to defined ERA5 climatology
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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