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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show the 24-hour precipitation from 8 November 18z to 9 November 18z for ECMWF HRES. The first plot shows the observations. Please note the observation of 37 mm over Stockholm, either indicating a very localised maximum or observation errors for that observations or the nearby ones (heavy snowfall is problematic for automatic stations).
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the evolution of the ensemble (blue) and HRES forecasts (red) for precipitation (left) and 2-metre temperature (right) for 8 November 00z to 10 November 00z. The cold anomaly was captured from 24 October, while the precipitation event was 'captured' from 5 October.
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for snowfall on 8 November.
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
The plots below show the 24-hour precipitation from control forecast of DMI limited area ensemble.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Early detection of cold anomaly for the period
- The model captured the development of convection over the Baltic Sea
- The model missed the amplitude of the event over Stockholm