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The plot below shows the vertical profile from the analysis 27 November 12z. The sounding is moist with high CAPE if one uses an SST of 18C for triggering. In fact it seems slightly odd that the CAPESHEAR EFI (see below), did not give a more prominent signal, given that there is quite a lot of vertical shear also on the sounding (~15m/s, surface to 500mb). Indeed the sounding suggests to me potential for very vigorous convection.
The plots below show 24-hour precipitation from observations (first plot) and HRES starting from the last forecast before the event.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for CAPE(first figure) and CAPE/SHEAR (2nd figure) for the period 0-24 h and the 3rd figure for CAPE and range (48-72h).
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