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The plots below shows the evolution of 24-hour precipitation for NYC (left) and Albany (right) for 13 March from ECMWF (red), UKMO (blue) and NCEP (green). For NYC the signal was picked up at a similar stage (9-10 March), while the northern extend was picked up later (11 March by ECMWF). NCEP picked up the northern extent earlier (9-10 March)) but lost the magnitude on 11 and 12 March. It is agreement with the NCEP HRES results and it is also worth noting the lower spread in the NCEP ensemble.
The plots below show the position of the cyclone in all ensemble members at 14 March 18UTC and the track from +/-12 hours. The colour of the symbol indicates the depth of the cyclone. the analysis included in red and ECMWF HRES in green. The left plots show ECMWF forecasts and right from NCEP. The ECMWF forecast had a clear majority of the members to the east of the analysis track for all three initial times. The NCEP forecast from 11 March 00z had the members more to the west but was shifted again to the east in the forecast from 12 March 00z.
+66h (12 March 00z)
+90h (11 March 00z)
+114h (10 March 00z)
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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